Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Tigres vs León Tigres vs León

TIGRESTIGRES

3-5-4  |  Home

0
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Universitario

LEÓNLEÓN

5-3-4  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGRES
35%
DRAW
31%
LEÓN
35%
▲ Edge: +22.20% (León)
47% Book Odds: +113
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +248
28% Book Odds: +260
Book Implied: 46.90% / 28.70% / 27.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 48%
Under 2.5 52%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
LEÓN
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (León)
TigresTigres (-0.2) 0 LeónLeón (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

70.4% / 29.6%

Shots (On Goal)

20(6) / 12(5)

Corners

16 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around León 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (León)

Tigres UANL By 1 goal

21.1%

Tigres UANL By 2+ goals

15.9%

León By 1 goal

21.1%

León By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.40
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.40
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
38% Win Prob
B
Sim Tigres UANL Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI León (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Tigres UANL (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 Tigres vs León 0 - 2
Mar 7, 2026 Tigres vs León 1 - 0
Jan 31, 2026 León vs Tigres 1 - 2
Nov 1, 2025 León vs Tigres 1 - 1
Sep 13, 2025 Tigres vs León 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
León: 2.0 vs Tigres: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +40.0% more
León: 7.0 vs Tigres: 5.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Tigres: 2.0 vs León: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +60.0% more
Tigres: 5.0 vs León: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
León Score 1.0 2
Tigres UANL Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Tigres UANL (Home) vs León (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tigres UANL Share: 50.0% León Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tigres UANL
León
Tigres UANL
León
ML
31% 4-9
38% 5-8
8% 1-12
31% 4-9
ATS
71% 8-3-1
68% 6-3-3
30% 3-8-1
37% 3-6-3
TTL
31% 4-9
36% 4-8
38% 5-8
44% 5-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.