Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Juárez vs Atlante Juárez vs Atlante

JUÁREZJUÁREZ

1-1-10  |  Home

0
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

ATLANTEATLANTE

2-5-5  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
JUÁREZ
40%
DRAW
21%
ATLANTE
40%
▲ Edge: +3.90% (Atlante)
30% Book Odds: +235
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +263
46% Book Odds: +117
Book Implied: 29.90% / 27.50% / 46.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 69%
Under 2.75 31%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
JUÁREZ
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Juárez)
JuárezJuárez (+0.2) 0 AtlanteAtlante (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

60.7% / 39.3%

Shots (On Goal)

7(1) / 10(3)

Corners

8 / 9

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around FC Juárez 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FC Juárez)

FC Juárez By 1 goal

21.1%

FC Juárez By 2+ goals

15.9%

Atlante By 1 goal

21.1%

Atlante By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1.20
2
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 1.20
2
ATLANTE
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
40% Win Prob
A
Sim Atlante Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI FC Juárez (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Atlante (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
B
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 Juárez vs Atlante 0 - 1
Jan 9, 2026 Atlante vs Juárez 1 - 2
Aug 29, 2025 Juárez vs Atlante 1 - 0
Jan 10, 2025 Atlante vs Juárez 1 - 1
Sep 13, 2024 Juárez vs Atlante 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +50.0% more
Atlante: 6.0 vs Juárez: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +14.3% more
Atlante: 7.0 vs Juárez: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlante Score 2.0 1
FC Juárez Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 39.6% Draw: 20.7% Away Win: 39.6%
FC Juárez (Home) vs Atlante (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 76.2% Under 2.5: 23.8%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 4.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
FC Juárez Share: 50.0% Atlante Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FC Juárez
Atlante
FC Juárez
Atlante
ML
54% 7-6
46% 6-7
77% 10-3
15% 2-11
ATS
40% 4-6-3
61% 7-4-1
82% 9-2-2
29% 3-7-2
TTL
42% 5-7-1
23% 3-10
58% 7-5-1
60% 7-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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