Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Atl. San Luis vs Queretaro Atl. San Luis vs Queretaro

ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS

3-4-5  |  Home

2
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Libertad Financiera

QUERETAROQUERETARO

6-2-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ATL. SAN LUIS
61%
DRAW
21%
QUERETARO
18%
▲ Edge: +20.70% (Querétaro)
42% Book Odds: +141
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +260
34% Book Odds: +194
Book Implied: 41.50% / 27.80% / 34%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 52%
Under 2.75 48%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Atl. San Luis)
Atl. San LuisAtl. San Luis (-0.2) 0 QueretaroQueretaro (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

55.2% / 44.8%

Shots (On Goal)

12(4) / 9(4)

Corners

5 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 0/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Atlético de San Luis -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlético de San Luis)

Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal

26.1%

Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals

36.9%

Querétaro By 1 goal

11.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Atlético de San Luis Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Atlético de San Luis Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Atlético de San Luis (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Atlético de San Luis (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Sim o2.8
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs Queretaro 2 - 1
Feb 14, 2026 Atl. San Luis vs Queretaro 3 - 0
Aug 22, 2025 Queretaro vs Atl. San Luis 3 - 2
Feb 7, 2025 Queretaro vs Atl. San Luis 1 - 0
Aug 18, 2024 Atl. San Luis vs Queretaro 4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +60.0% more
Atl. San Luis: 8.0 vs Queretaro: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Querétaro Score 1.0 1
Atlético de San Luis Score 2.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Atlético de San Luis (Home) vs Querétaro (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Atlético de San Luis Share: 66.7% Querétaro Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Atlético de San Luis
Querétaro
Atlético de San Luis
Querétaro
ML
31% 4-9
33% 4-8
46% 6-7
33% 4-8
ATS
58% 7-5-1
50% 5-5-2
64% 7-4-2
36% 4-7-1
TTL
39% 4-7-1
62% 6-4-1
74% 8-3-1
52% 5-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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