Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Guadalajara vs Necaxa Guadalajara vs Necaxa

GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA

6-5-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 8:07 PM ET
Estadio Akron

NECAXANECAXA

2-3-8  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
GUADALAJARA
61%
DRAW
21%
NECAXA
18%
▲ Edge: +27.70% (Necaxa)
73% Book Odds: -275
DRAW 18% Book Odds: +464
13% Book Odds: +682
Book Implied: 73.30% / 17.70% / 12.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5 39%
Under 3.5 61%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
NECAXA
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Necaxa)
GuadalajaraGuadalajara (-1.5) 0 NecaxaNecaxa (+1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

59.4% / 40.6%

Shots (On Goal)

10(3) / 11(4)

Corners

9 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Necaxa +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Necaxa)

Guadalajara By 1 goal

26.1%

Guadalajara By 2+ goals

36.9%

Necaxa By 1 goal

11.1%

Necaxa By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 2.50
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 2.50
1
NECAXA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guadalajara Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Guadalajara Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Necaxa (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Necaxa (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u3.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 Guadalajara vs Necaxa 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 4.0 vs Necaxa: 12.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Guadalajara: 1.0 vs Necaxa: 3.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Guadalajara: 1.0 vs Necaxa: 0.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Guadalajara: 2.0 vs Necaxa: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Necaxa Score 1.0 0
Guadalajara Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Guadalajara (Home) vs Necaxa (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Guadalajara Share: 66.7% Necaxa Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Guadalajara
Necaxa
Guadalajara
Necaxa
ML
54% 7-6
46% 6-7
54% 7-6
54% 7-6
ATS
80% 8-2-3
54% 7-6
50% 5-5-3
62% 8-5
TTL
79% 9-2-1
62% 8-5
50% 6-6-1
85% 11-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
No relevant news articles found for this game.