MONTERREYMONTERREY
4-2-4 | Home
2
PACHUCAPACHUCA
3-4-4 | Away
1
AI Model Win Probability
MONTERREY
35%
DRAW
31%
PACHUCA
35%
▲ Edge: +31.50% (Pachuca)
62%
Book Odds: -163
DRAW
23%
Book Odds: +329
19%
Book Odds: +441
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
3.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 3.0
54%
Under 3.0
46%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
PACHUCA
Book Goal Line
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 goals (Pachuca)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
52.0% / 48.0%
Shots (On Goal)
10(4) / 11(3)
Corners
3 / 8
Cards (Y/R)
3/0 - 3/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Pachuca 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Pachuca)
Monterrey By 1 goal
21.1%
Monterrey By 2+ goals
15.9%
Pachuca By 1 goal
21.1%
Pachuca By 2+ goals
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Monterrey
1
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 2
Pachuca
1
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
Monterrey
2
MONTERREY
Book Implied: 2
Pachuca
1
PACHUCA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Draw
37% Win Prob
B
Sim
Monterrey
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pachuca (+1)
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim
Pachuca (+1)
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u3.0
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim
u3.0
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 18, 2026
Monterrey vs Pachuca
2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5)
+100.0% more
Pachuca: 8.0
vs
Monterrey: 4.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+20.0% more
Monterrey: 5.0
vs
Pachuca: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Pachuca Score
1.0
1
Monterrey Score
1.0
2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Monterrey (Home)
vs
Pachuca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Monterrey
Pachuca
Monterrey
Pachuca
ML
40%
4-6
36%
4-7
40%
4-6
20%
2-8
ATS
47%
4-5
70%
7-3-1
40%
4-6
20%
2-8
TTL
50%
5-5
55%
6-5
50%
5-5
30%
3-7