MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
6-3-2 | Road
2
WINNIPEG
JETSWPG
4-4-3 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jacob Fowler
#32 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Stuart Skinner
#74 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler | None-None | 1.00 | 0.971 | -- |
| Stuart Skinner | None-None | 2.05 | 0.905 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
2.05
0.971 Ldr
Save %
0.905
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
66%
JETS
34%
▲ Edge: +13.20% (MTL)
CANADIENS
53%
Book Odds: -111
JETS
50%
Book Odds: +101
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 6.0
68%
Under 6.0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WPG +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)
MTL By 1 goal
19.1%
MTL By 2-3 goals
34.1%
WPG By 1 goal
9.2%
WPG By 2-3 goals
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 3.80
Winnipeg
2.5
WINNIPEG
Book Implied: 2.20
Simulated Score
Montreal
3
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 3.80
Winnipeg
2
WINNIPEG
Book Implied: 2.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Canadiens
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Canadiens
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Jets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
A
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2026
WPG @ MTL
5 - 4
Oct 25, 2026
MTL @ WPG
2 - 1
Feb 4, 2026
MTL @ WPG
5 - 1
Dec 3, 2025
WPG @ MTL
2 - 3
Jan 28, 2025
WPG @ MTL
4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+18.8% more
Montreal: 31.0
vs
Winnipeg: 25.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+12.2%
Montreal: 55.6%
vs
Winnipeg: 43.5%
Power Play % (L5)
+2.0%
Montreal: 10.4%
vs
Winnipeg: 8.4%
Hits (L5)
+29.2% more
Winnipeg: 25.4
vs
Montreal: 19.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
4.0
2
WPG Score
2.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.1 / 11.1
14.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
43.5 / 55.6
49.2 / 50.8
Hits
25.4 / 19.6
29.0 / 31.0
Power Play %
842.0 / 1042.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.2 / 31.0
34.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
4.7 / 4.0
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -115 / -105
→
-111 / +101
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
6
↑
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
MTL
WPG
MTL
ML
55%
11-9
63%
12-7
50%
10-10
42%
8-11
ATS
30%
6-14
42%
8-11
70%
14-6
74%
14-5
TTL
55%
11-9
42%
8-11
45%
9-11
47%
9-10
Contextual Game News
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