Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Kings MEM @ SAC

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

3-0  |  Road

123
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 9:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

0-3  |  Home

112
Key Game
Cam Spencer
KEY GAME

Cam Spencer

#24 | Guard
@
Emanuel Sharp
KEY GAME

Emanuel Sharp

#34 | Guard
Player
Cam Spencer None-None
Emanuel Sharp None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
52%
📊
KINGS
48%
▲ Edge: +5.80% (SAC)
GRIZZLIES 61% Book Odds: -155
KINGS 42% Book Odds: +140
Book Implied: 60.80% / 41.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
234.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 234.5 57%
Under 234.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Sacramento)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Sacramento Kings (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

48.4%

Kings Cover

51.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

MEM By 1-7 points

25.7%

MEM By 8-14 points

16.0%

SAC By 1-7 points

24.9%

SAC By 8-14 points

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
119.2
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 119
118.8
SACRAMENTO
Book Implied: 115.50
Simulated Score
108
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 119
109
SACRAMENTO
Book Implied: 115.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kings (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +0.4
B
Sim Kings (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o234.5 Win
Proj Total: 238.0
C
Sim u234.5 Loss
Proj Total: 217.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 SAC @ MEM 105 - 136
Oct 25, 2026 MEM @ SAC 123 - 112
Feb 23, 2026 SAC @ MEM 123 - 114
Feb 4, 2026 MEM @ SAC 129 - 125
Nov 30, 2025 MEM @ SAC 115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.2% more
Memphis: 5.5 vs Sacramento: 3.5
Turnovers (L5) +15.8% more
Memphis: 18.6 vs Sacramento: 15.7
Assists (L5) +9.7% more
Memphis: 25.2 vs Sacramento: 22.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Memphis: 34.9% vs Sacramento: 30.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 119.2 123
SAC Score 118.8 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 34.9 30.0 / 38.0
Assists 22.8 / 25.2 20.0 / 24.0
Blocks 3.5 / 5.5 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 44.9 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 80.0 64.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 43.6 / 44.9 44.0 / 54.0
Steals 7.5 / 7.8 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 18.6 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -168 / +148 → -155 / +140 ↑
83%TICKETS17%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -3.5 / +3.5
57%TICKETS43%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 237 → 234.5 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
7-4-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +5.3
SAC
1-10-0 (9.1%)
Margin: -12.7 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
7-4-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +5.3
SAC
4-7-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -12.7 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
5-6-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -2.2
SAC
6-5-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
MEM
SAC
MEM
ML
91% 10-1
55% 6-5
73% 8-3
36% 4-7
ATS
45% 5-6
55% 6-5
36% 4-7
36% 4-7
TTL
18% 2-9
45% 5-6
27% 3-8
36% 4-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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