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LA

CLIPPERSLAC

1-2  |  Road

101
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 7:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

3-0  |  Home

108
Key Game
Keaton Wagler
KEY GAME

Keaton Wagler

#1 | Guard
@
Bennett Stirtz
KEY GAME

Bennett Stirtz

#14 | Guard
Player
Keaton Wagler None-None
Bennett Stirtz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CLIPPERS
18%
📊
THUNDER
82%
▲ Edge: +4.90% (LAC)
CLIPPERS 13% Book Odds: +650
THUNDER 90% Book Odds: -901
Book Implied: 13.30% / 90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.5
Projected
Book Total
223.5
Over / Under Line
Over 223.5 48%
Under 223.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.5
LA
Book Spread
+16.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (LA)
ClippersLAC (+16.5) 0 ThunderOKC (-16.5)
LA Clippers (+16.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Clippers Cover

82.9%

Thunder Cover

17.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAC +9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LAC By 1-7 points

11.4%

LAC By 8-14 points

3.6%

OKC By 1-7 points

23.7%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.1%

AI Model Projected Score
107
LA
Book Implied: 103.50
116.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Implied: 120
Simulated Score
104
LA
Book Implied: 103.50
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Implied: 120
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Thunder Win
82% Win Prob
A
Sim Thunder Win
78% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Clippers (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.5
A
Sim Clippers (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u223.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.5
D
Sim u223.5 Win
Proj Total: 219.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 LAC @ OKC 101 - 108
Apr 8, 2026 OKC @ LAC 128 - 110
Dec 18, 2025 LAC @ OKC 101 - 122
Nov 4, 2025 OKC @ LAC 126 - 107
Mar 23, 2025 OKC @ LAC 103 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +73.0% more
Oklahoma City: 7.1 vs LA: 4.1
Rebounding (L5) +11.8% more
Oklahoma City: 44.3 vs LA: 39.6
Free Throw % (L5) +5.6%
Oklahoma City: 86.2% vs LA: 80.6%
Turnovers (L5) +29.8% more
LA: 19.2 vs Oklahoma City: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 107.0 101
OKC Score 116.5 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 40.1 33.0 / 39.0
Assists 23.4 / 26.0 23.0 / 30.0
Blocks 7.1 / 4.1 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.8 / 49.4 45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 86.2 / 80.6 94.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 44.3 / 39.6 46.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.9 / 11.6 15.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 19.2 17.0 / 26.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +720 / -1088 → +650 / -901 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14.5 / -14.5 → +16.5 / -16.5 ↑
49%TICKETS51%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 221 → 223.5 ↑
83%TICKETS17%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
2-8-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -1.5
OKC Advantage
8-4-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -1.5
OKC Advantage
7-5-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
6-4-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
OKC
4-8-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
LAC
OKC
LAC
ML
58% 7-5
80% 8-2
42% 5-7
70% 7-3
ATS
17% 2-10
50% 5-5
25% 3-9
40% 4-6
TTL
67% 8-4
50% 5-5
75% 9-3
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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