Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Real Madrid vs Sevilla Real Madrid vs Sevilla

REAL MADRIDREAL MADRID

6-0-2  |  Home

4
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 3:00 PM ET
Santiago Bernabéu

SEVILLASEVILLA

4-2-2  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
REAL MADRID
61%
DRAW
21%
SEVILLA
18%
▲ Edge: +33.90% (Sevilla)
80% Book Odds: -400
DRAW --
10% Book Odds: +900
Book Implied: 80% / % / 10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5 32%
Under 3.5 68%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
SEVILLA
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Sevilla)
Real MadridReal Madrid (-1.5) 0 SevillaSevilla (+1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

65.0% / 35.0%

Shots (On Goal)

15(8) / 11(5)

Corners

1 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Sevilla +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Sevilla)

Real Madrid By 1 goal

26.1%

Real Madrid By 2+ goals

36.9%

Sevilla By 1 goal

11.1%

Sevilla By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 2.50
1
SEVILLA
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
3
REAL MADRID
Book Implied: 2.50
0
SEVILLA
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Real Madrid Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim Real Madrid Win
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sevilla (+1.75) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Real Madrid (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim u3.5 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 Real Madrid vs Sevilla 4 - 1
Dec 20, 2025 Real Madrid vs Sevilla 2 - 0
May 18, 2025 Sevilla vs Real Madrid 0 - 2
Dec 22, 2024 Real Madrid vs Sevilla 4 - 2
Feb 25, 2024 Real Madrid vs Sevilla 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Real Madrid: 4.0 vs Sevilla: 2.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Real Madrid: 1.0 vs Sevilla: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +85.7% more
Real Madrid: 13.0 vs Sevilla: 7.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +12.5% more
Real Madrid: 8.0 vs Sevilla: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Sevilla Score 1.0 1
Real Madrid Score 2.0 4
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Real Madrid (Home) vs Sevilla (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Real Madrid Share: 66.7% Sevilla Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Real Madrid
Sevilla
Real Madrid
Sevilla
ML
67% 6-3
89% 8-1
78% 7-2
44% 4-5
ATS
33% 3-6
78% 7-2
44% 4-5
53% 4-4
TTL
62% 5-3-1
33% 3-6
50% 4-4-1
67% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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