Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Málaga vs Real Sociedad Málaga vs Real Sociedad

MÁLAGAMÁLAGA

0-4-5  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 12:30 PM ET
La Rosaleda

REAL SOCIEDADREAL SOCIEDAD

5-1-3  |  Away

5
AI Model Win Probability
MÁLAGA
35%
DRAW
31%
REAL SOCIEDAD
35%
▲ Edge: +2.40% (Real Sociedad)
28% Book Odds: +253
DRAW 27% Book Odds: +272
48% Book Odds: +110
Book Implied: 28.30% / 26.90% / 47.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 48%
Under 2.75 52%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
MÁLAGA
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Málaga)
MálagaMálaga (+0.2) 0 Real SociedadReal Sociedad (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

45.3% / 54.7%

Shots (On Goal)

17(6) / 21(9)

Corners

4 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

0/0 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Málaga 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Málaga)

Málaga By 1 goal

21.1%

Málaga By 2+ goals

15.9%

Real Sociedad By 1 goal

21.1%

Real Sociedad By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 1.20
1
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
0
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 1.20
2
REAL SOCIEDAD
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Draw Loss
41% Win Prob
A
Sim Real Sociedad Win
81% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Málaga (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Sim Real Sociedad (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim u2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 Málaga vs Real Sociedad 2 - 5
Apr 22, 2018 Málaga vs Real Sociedad 2 - 0
Dec 10, 2017 Real Sociedad vs Málaga 0 - 2
May 14, 2017 Real Sociedad vs Málaga 2 - 2
Jan 16, 2017 Málaga vs Real Sociedad 0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Real Sociedad: 2.0 vs Málaga: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5) +166.7% more
Real Sociedad: 8.0 vs Málaga: 3.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Málaga: 3.0 vs Real Sociedad: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +66.7% more
Málaga: 6.0 vs Real Sociedad: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Real Sociedad Score 1.0 5
Málaga Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Málaga (Home) vs Real Sociedad (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Málaga Share: 50.0% Real Sociedad Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Málaga
Real Sociedad
Málaga
Real Sociedad
ML
56% 5-4
11% 1-8
44% 4-5
67% 6-3
ATS
50% 4-4-1
44% 4-5
50% 4-4-1
78% 7-2
TTL
65% 5-3
22% 2-7
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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