Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Celta Vigo vs Alavés Celta Vigo vs Alavés

CELTA VIGOCELTA VIGO

1-5-2  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 10:15 AM ET
Balaidos

ALAVÉSALAVÉS

3-2-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
CELTA VIGO
35%
DRAW
31%
ALAVÉS
35%
▲ Edge: +23.70% (Alavés)
45% Book Odds: +123
DRAW 32% Book Odds: +216
26% Book Odds: +280
Book Implied: 44.80% / 31.60% / 26.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.0
Over / Under Line
Over 2.0 59%
Under 2.0 41%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ALAVÉS
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Alavés)
Celta VigoCelta Vigo (-0.2) 0 AlavésAlavés (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

47.8% / 52.2%

Shots (On Goal)

6(3) / 20(9)

Corners

0 / 4

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Alavés 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Alavés)

Celta Vigo By 1 goal

21.1%

Celta Vigo By 2+ goals

15.9%

Alavés By 1 goal

21.1%

Alavés By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1.10
1
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
1
CELTA VIGO
Book Implied: 1.10
0
ALAVÉS
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
45% Win Prob
A
Sim Celta Vigo Win
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Alavés (+0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Celta Vigo (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.0 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim u2.0 Loss
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 Celta Vigo vs Alavés 2 - 1
Mar 22, 2026 Celta Vigo vs Alavés 3 - 4
Nov 22, 2025 Alavés vs Celta Vigo 0 - 1
Jan 27, 2025 Alavés vs Celta Vigo 1 - 1
Aug 16, 2024 Celta Vigo vs Alavés 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Celta Vigo: 2.0 vs Alavés: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +75.0% more
Celta Vigo: 4.0 vs Alavés: 7.0
Losses (L5) +50.0% more
Celta Vigo: 2.0 vs Alavés: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Alavés Score 1.0 1
Celta Vigo Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Celta Vigo (Home) vs Alavés (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Celta Vigo Share: 50.0% Alavés Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Celta Vigo
Alavés
Celta Vigo
Alavés
ML
44% 4-5
33% 3-6
22% 2-7
56% 5-4
ATS
24% 2-6
67% 6-3
33% 3-6
65% 5-3
TTL
56% 5-4
50% 4-4-1
44% 4-5
20% 1-6-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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