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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

4-4-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

6-4-0  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
@
Charlie Lindgren
GOALTENDER

Charlie Lindgren

#79 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 3.77 0.882 --
Charlie Lindgren None-None 2.83 0.857 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.77 GAA Ldr 2.83
0.882 Ldr Save % 0.857
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
48%
📊
CAPITALS
52%
SABRES 49% Book Odds: +105
CAPITALS 54% Book Odds: -115
Book Implied: 48.80% / 53.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5 49%
Under 6.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
SabresBUF (+1.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

77.3%

Capitals Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1 goal

9.2%

BUF By 2-3 goals

6.1%

WSH By 1 goal

19.1%

WSH By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2.50
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
3
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2.50
2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Capitals Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Sabres Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sabres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Sabres (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 BUF @ WSH 3 - 4
Apr 4, 2026 BUF @ WSH 2 - 6
Mar 12, 2026 WSH @ BUF 2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025 WSH @ BUF 3 - 4
Mar 30, 2025 BUF @ WSH 8 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +25.6% more
Washington: 15.3 vs Buffalo: 12.2
Hits (L5) +12.2% more
Washington: 19.8 vs Buffalo: 17.7
Power Play % (L5) +11.0%
Washington: 25.8% vs Buffalo: 14.8%
Faceoff % (L5) +3.0%
Washington: 50.7% vs Buffalo: 47.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 2.5 3
WSH Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.3 / 12.2 21.0 / 9.0
Faceoff % 50.7 / 47.7 43.4 / 56.6
Hits 19.8 / 17.7 26.0 / 15.0
Power Play % 2583.0 / 1483.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 27.6 / 27.3 34.0 / 21.0
Takeaways 3.0 / 4.8 5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +105 / -115 ↓
21%TICKETS79%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
55%TICKETS45%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
87%TICKETS13%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BUF
WSH
BUF
ML
71% 12-5
68% 13-6
53% 9-8
42% 8-11
ATS
53% 9-8
42% 8-11
71% 12-5
68% 13-6
TTL
60% 9-6-2
53% 10-9
27% 4-11-2
42% 8-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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