ANAHEIM
DUCKSANA
5-6-0 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
3-7-3 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Lukas Dostal
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Joseph Woll
#53 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal | None-None | 4.00 | 0.875 | -- |
| Joseph Woll | None-None | 5.19 | 0.808 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.00 Ldr
GAA
5.19
0.875 Ldr
Save %
0.808
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
40%
FLYERS
60%
▲ Edge: +6.70% (PHI)
DUCKS
49%
Book Odds: +105
FLYERS
54%
Book Odds: -116
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5
58%
Under 5.5
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PHI -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
ANA By 1 goal
8.6%
ANA By 2-3 goals
5.5%
PHI By 1 goal
18.9%
PHI By 2-3 goals
34.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Anaheim
2.2
ANAHEIM
Book Implied: 2
Philadelphia
3.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Anaheim
2
ANAHEIM
Book Implied: 2
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flyers
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Flyers
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Flyers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim
Ducks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim
u5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 24, 2026
ANA @ PHI
5 - 4
Mar 18, 2026
PHI @ ANA
3 - 2
Jan 6, 2026
ANA @ PHI
2 - 5
Jan 11, 2025
ANA @ PHI
0 - 6
Dec 28, 2024
PHI @ ANA
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+19.1%
Philadelphia: 24.2%
vs
Anaheim: 5.1%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.6% more
Philadelphia: 24.2
vs
Anaheim: 21.5
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.0%
Philadelphia: 49.1%
vs
Anaheim: 44.1%
Hits (L5)
+8.8% more
Anaheim: 25.6
vs
Philadelphia: 23.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ANA Score
2.2
5
PHI Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.9 / 15.7
10.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
49.1 / 44.1
48.4 / 51.6
Hits
23.3 / 25.6
20.0 / 34.0
Power Play %
24.2 / 5.1
28.6 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
24.2 / 21.5
32.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 4.1
8.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125
→
+105 / -116
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ANA
PHI
ANA
ML
57%
12-9
44%
8-10
52%
11-10
50%
9-9
ATS
38%
8-13
28%
5-13
43%
9-12
50%
9-9
TTL
65%
13-7-1
35%
6-11-1
50%
10-10-1
29%
5-12-1
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