Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Suns GS @ PHX

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

0-3  |  Road

122
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 10:00 PM ET
Mortgage Matchup Center
View Odds Details →

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

1-1  |  Home

131
Key Game
LJ Cryer
KEY GAME

LJ Cryer

#18 | Guard
@
Collin Gillespie
KEY GAME

Collin Gillespie

#12 | Guard
Player
LJ Cryer None-None
Collin Gillespie None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
29%
📊
SUNS
71%
▲ Edge: +5.80% (GS)
WARRIORS 23% Book Odds: +328
SUNS 79% Book Odds: -378
Book Implied: 23.40% / 79.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.6
Projected
Book Total
222.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 (Over)
Over 222.0 58%
Under 222.0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
+9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (+9.5) 0 SunsPHX (-9.5)
Golden State Warriors (+9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

78.8%

Suns Cover

21.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

13.7%

GS By 8-14 points

4.8%

PHX By 1-7 points

25.3%

PHX By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
108.8
GOLDEN STATE
Book Implied: 106.20
116.8
PHOENIX
Book Implied: 115.80
Simulated Score
108
GOLDEN STATE
Book Implied: 106.20
106
PHOENIX
Book Implied: 115.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Suns Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Warriors Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
C
Sim Warriors (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o222.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.6
B
Sim u222.0 Loss
Proj Total: 214.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 2, 2026 PHX @ GS 113 - 116
Oct 24, 2026 GS @ PHX 122 - 131
Apr 17, 2026 GS @ PHX 96 - 111
Feb 5, 2026 GS @ PHX 101 - 97
Dec 20, 2025 PHX @ GS 116 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +33.8% more
Phoenix: 4.6 vs Golden State: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +8.2% more
Phoenix: 14.7 vs Golden State: 13.6
Steals (L5) +24.5% more
Golden State: 10.7 vs Phoenix: 8.1
Assists (L5) +19.0% more
Golden State: 24.6 vs Phoenix: 19.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 108.8 122
PHX Score 116.8 131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.5 / 32.3 38.0 / 44.0
Assists 19.9 / 24.6 33.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.4 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 44.2 58.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 77.5 / 83.1 77.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 38.8 / 39.1 42.0 / 44.0
Steals 8.1 / 10.7 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 17.8 17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +170 / -205 → +328 / -378 ↑
22%TICKETS78%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +9.5 / -9.5 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 224.5 → 222 ↓
72%TICKETS28%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
8-4-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +8.2
PHX
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS Advantage
8-4-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +8.2
PHX
3-7-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -5.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
7-5-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +2.3
PHX
6-4-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
GS
PHX
GS
ML
80% 8-2
50% 6-6
50% 5-5
42% 5-7
ATS
30% 3-7
42% 5-7
40% 4-6
42% 5-7
TTL
50% 5-5
75% 9-3
20% 2-8
42% 5-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kings Eye Gabe Vincent to Fill Ben Simmons Void, Add Veteran Dep…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Lendeborg's Double-Double Wasted as Warriors Fall to Rockets 115…
yahoo 5 hours, 24 minutes ago
Stephen Curry Exits Early as Warriors Fall to Rockets
houstonchronicle 5 hours, 28 minutes ago
Rockets Halt Warriors' Streak with 115-108 Win as Curry Exits Ea…
yahoo 5 hours, 32 minutes ago
Warriors Fall to Rockets as Curry Exits Early, but Lendeborg Shi…
si 5 hours, 34 minutes ago