Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Nuggets NO @ DEN

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

0-3  |  Road

135
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

1-1  |  Home

141
Key Game
Bennedict Mathurin
KEY GAME

Bennedict Mathurin

#24 | Guard
@
Tyus Jones
KEY GAME

Tyus Jones

#5 | Guard
Player
Bennedict Mathurin None-None
Tyus Jones None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
20%
📊
NUGGETS
80%
▲ Edge: +0.10% (DEN)
PELICANS 22% Book Odds: +360
NUGGETS 80% Book Odds: -400
Book Implied: 21.70% / 80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.5
Projected
Book Total
239.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +7.0 (Under)
Over 239.5 34%
Under 239.5 66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.5
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
+11.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New Orleans)
PelicansNO (+11.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (-11.5)
New Orleans Pelicans (+11.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

85.3%

Nuggets Cover

14.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO +10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NO By 1-7 points

10.0%

NO By 8-14 points

3.0%

DEN By 1-7 points

22.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

27.3%

AI Model Projected Score
111
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 114
121.5
DENVER
Book Implied: 125.50
Simulated Score
110
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 114
115
DENVER
Book Implied: 125.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Nuggets Win
80% Win Prob
A
Sim Nuggets Win
64% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.5
D
Sim Pelicans (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u239.5 Loss
Proj Total: 232.5
A
Sim u239.5 Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 28, 2026 DEN @ NO 104 - 91
Oct 24, 2026 NO @ DEN 135 - 141
Jan 13, 2026 DEN @ NO 122 - 116
Nov 19, 2025 DEN @ NO 125 - 118
Oct 29, 2025 NO @ DEN 88 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +13.1% more
Denver: 15.8 vs New Orleans: 14.0
Steals (L5) +35.2% more
New Orleans: 11.5 vs Denver: 7.4
Blocks (L5) +15.0% more
New Orleans: 5.3 vs Denver: 4.5
Free Throw % (L5) +8.4%
New Orleans: 84.0% vs Denver: 75.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 111.0 135
DEN Score 121.5 141
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 31.3 32.0 / 29.0
Assists 22.9 / 21.3 26.0 / 33.0
Blocks 4.5 / 5.3 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 46.7 48.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 84.0 77.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 42.0 / 44.3 51.0 / 50.0
Steals 7.4 / 11.5 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 14.0 12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +370 / -485 → +360 / -400 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +11.5 / -11.5 → +11.5 / -11.5
47%TICKETS53%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 237.5 → 239.5 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
DEN Advantage
6-4-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
6-6-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
DEN
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
7-5-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +7.1
DEN
5-5-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
NO
DEN
NO
ML
80% 8-2
67% 8-4
50% 5-5
67% 8-4
ATS
50% 5-5
42% 5-7
40% 4-6
67% 8-4
TTL
30% 3-7
58% 7-5
50% 5-5
50% 6-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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