HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
3-0 | Road
121
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
2-1 | Home
114
Key Game
KEY GAME
Bruce Thornton
#2 | Guard@
KEY GAME
Kingston Flemings
#4 | Guard| Player | |
|---|---|
| Bruce Thornton | None-None |
| Kingston Flemings | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
47%
HAWKS
53%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (ATL)
ROCKETS
51%
Book Odds: -105
HAWKS
51%
Book Odds: -105
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.4
Projected
Book Total
227.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +4.1 (Under)
Over 227.5
41%
Under 227.5
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
HOU By 1-7 points
24.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
13.7%
ATL By 1-7 points
26.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
111.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 114.50
Atlanta
112.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 113
Simulated Score
Houston
108
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 114.50
Atlanta
103
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 113
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim
Rockets (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u227.5
Loss
Proj Total: 223.4
B
Sim
u227.5
Loss
Proj Total: 211.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 26, 2026
ATL @ HOU
110 - 120
Oct 24, 2026
HOU @ ATL
121 - 114
Mar 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
95 - 117
Jan 29, 2026
HOU @ ATL
104 - 86
Mar 25, 2025
ATL @ HOU
114 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.7% more
Atlanta: 28.7
vs
Houston: 24.2
Turnovers (L5)
+8.4% more
Atlanta: 13.4
vs
Houston: 12.4
Blocks (L5)
+19.6% more
Houston: 4.8
vs
Atlanta: 3.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.5%
Houston: 79.3%
vs
Atlanta: 71.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
111.2
121
ATL Score
112.2
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 35.7
27.0 / 40.0
Assists
28.7 / 24.2
35.0 / 27.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.8
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 46.5
45.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
71.7 / 79.3
71.0 / 91.0
Rebounding
41.3 / 42.6
42.0 / 43.0
Steals
10.7 / 10.6
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 14.5
14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115
→
-105 / -105
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 230.5
→
227.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
9-3-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 8.9
ATS +/-: +4.4
ATL
7-5-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
9-3-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 8.9
ATS +/-: +4.4
ATL
4-8-0
(33.3%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
7-5-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
ATL
7-5-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
HOU
ATL
HOU
ML
50%
6-6
58%
7-5
67%
8-4
58%
7-5
ATS
42%
5-7
58%
7-5
75%
9-3
33%
4-8
TTL
42%
5-7
42%
5-7
58%
7-5
42%
5-7
Contextual Game News
