Home / NBA Projections NBA / Spurs @ Mavericks SA @ DAL

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

1-2  |  Road

122
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

1-2  |  Home

106
Key Game
Ja'Kobi Gillespie
KEY GAME

Ja'Kobi Gillespie

#17 | Guard
@
Jett Howard
KEY GAME

Jett Howard

#9 | Guard
Player
Ja'Kobi Gillespie None-None
Jett Howard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
80%
📊
MAVERICKS
20%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (DAL)
SPURS 87% Book Odds: -693
MAVERICKS 15% Book Odds: +561
Book Implied: 87.40% / 15.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.5
Projected
Book Total
230.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +8.5 (Under)
Over 230.0 33%
Under 230.0 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
+15
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Dallas)
SpursSA (-15) 0 MavericksDAL (+15)
Dallas Mavericks (+15) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

14.7%

Mavericks Cover

85.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

SA By 1-7 points

22.3%

SA By 8-14 points

27.3%

DAL By 1-7 points

10.0%

DAL By 8-14 points

3.0%

AI Model Projected Score
116
SAN ANTONIO
Book Implied: 122.50
105.5
DALLAS
Book Implied: 107.50
Simulated Score
105
SAN ANTONIO
Book Implied: 122.50
107
DALLAS
Book Implied: 107.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spurs Win
80% Win Prob
A
Sim Mavericks Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mavericks (+15) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.5
B
Sim Mavericks (+15) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.5
A
Sim u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 212.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2026 DAL @ SA 111 - 112
Oct 24, 2026 SA @ DAL 122 - 106
Apr 10, 2026 DAL @ SA 120 - 139
Feb 7, 2026 DAL @ SA 125 - 138
Feb 5, 2026 SA @ DAL 135 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.6% more
Dallas: 26.3 vs San Antonio: 21.4
Steals (L5) +21.6% more
Dallas: 9.7 vs San Antonio: 8.0
Blocks (L5) +14.2% more
Dallas: 6.9 vs San Antonio: 6.1
Turnovers (L5) +11.7% more
Dallas: 15.2 vs San Antonio: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 116.0 122
DAL Score 105.5 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 32.2 39.0 / 36.0
Assists 26.3 / 21.4 29.0 / 34.0
Blocks 6.9 / 6.1 6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 42.5 51.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 79.5 / 77.1 63.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 43.5 / 43.0 42.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.7 / 8.0 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 13.6 21.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -470 / +360 → -693 / +561 ↓
90%TICKETS10%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -11.5 / +11.5 → -15 / +15 ↓
44%TICKETS56%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 230.5 → 230 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA Advantage
10-2-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: -0.5
DAL
7-4-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
5-7-0 (41.7%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: -0.5
DAL Advantage
7-4-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
4-8-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.5
DAL
3-8-0
O: 27.3% / U: 72.7% Total +/-: -4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
SA
DAL
SA
ML
55% 6-5
83% 10-2
55% 6-5
75% 9-3
ATS
45% 5-6
50% 6-6
55% 6-5
25% 3-9
TTL
73% 8-3
50% 6-6
64% 7-4
50% 6-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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