Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bucks @ 76ers MIL @ PHI

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

0-3  |  Road

116
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 7:30 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

3-0  |  Home

127
Key Game
Kasparas Jakucionis
KEY GAME

Kasparas Jakucionis

#25 | Guard
@
Labaron Philon Jr.
KEY GAME

Labaron Philon Jr.

#00 | Guard
Player
Kasparas Jakucionis None-None
Labaron Philon Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
27%
📊
76ERS
73%
▲ Edge: +8.90% (MIL)
BUCKS 18% Book Odds: +450
76ERS 84% Book Odds: -526
Book Implied: 18.20% / 84%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.5
Projected
Book Total
234.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +8.0 (Under)
Over 234.5 34%
Under 234.5 66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
+13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Milwaukee)
BucksMIL (+13.5) 0 76ersPHI (-13.5)
Milwaukee Bucks (+13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucks Cover

70.9%

76ers Cover

29.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL +5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-7 points

17.7%

MIL By 8-14 points

7.4%

PHI By 1-7 points

27.1%

PHI By 8-14 points

23.7%

AI Model Projected Score
110.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 110.50
116
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 124
Simulated Score
107
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 110.50
104
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 124
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI 76ers Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Bucks Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Bucks (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.5
A
Sim Bucks (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u234.5 Loss
Proj Total: 226.5
A
Sim u234.5 Loss
Proj Total: 211.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 MIL @ PHI 116 - 127
Apr 12, 2026 MIL @ PHI 106 - 126
Jan 27, 2026 MIL @ PHI 122 - 139
Dec 5, 2025 PHI @ MIL 116 - 101
Nov 20, 2025 PHI @ MIL 123 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.1% more
Philadelphia: 7.7 vs Milwaukee: 5.7
Free Throw % (L5) +9.7%
Philadelphia: 77.4% vs Milwaukee: 67.7%
Turnovers (L5) +29.1% more
Milwaukee: 16.6 vs Philadelphia: 11.8
Turnovers (L5) +22.5% more
Milwaukee: 17.8 vs Philadelphia: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 110.5 116
PHI Score 116.0 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.0 / 38.5 43.0 / 32.0
Assists 24.1 / 28.4 26.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.4 / 4.4 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 47.6 41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 67.7 82.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 42.4 40.0 / 62.0
Steals 7.7 / 5.7 14.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 17.8 11.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +455 / -625 → +450 / -526 ↓
7%TICKETS93%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +12.5 / -12.5 → +13.5 / -13.5 ↑
41%TICKETS59%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 230.5 → 234.5 ↑
53%TICKETS47%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
1-11-0 (8.3%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
PHI Advantage
9-3-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
PHI Advantage
6-6-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.0
PHI
4-8-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -9.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIL
PHI
MIL
ML
58% 7-5
83% 10-2
58% 7-5
75% 9-3
ATS
42% 5-7
50% 6-6
42% 5-7
67% 8-4
TTL
75% 9-3
33% 4-8
58% 7-5
42% 5-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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