MIAMI
HEATMIA
0-3 | Road
110
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
2-1 | Home
115
Key Game
KEY GAME
Ryan Conwell
#4 | Guard@
KEY GAME
Christian Anderson
#5 | Guard| Player | |
|---|---|
| Ryan Conwell | None-None |
| Christian Anderson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
47%
HORNETS
53%
▲ Edge: +12.60% (CHA)
HEAT
62%
Book Odds: -160
HORNETS
41%
Book Odds: +147
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
228.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +5.0 (Over)
Over 228.0
57%
Under 228.0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
+4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.6 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
MIA By 1-7 points
22.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
11.3%
CHA By 1-7 points
27.1%
CHA By 8-14 points
19.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
115.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 116
Charlotte
117.8
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 112
Simulated Score
Miami
111
MIAMI
Book Implied: 116
Charlotte
108
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 112
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+4)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.6
A
Sim
Hornets (+4)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o228.0
Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
C
Sim
u228.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 24, 2026
MIA @ CHA
110 - 115
Apr 14, 2026
MIA @ CHA
126 - 127
Mar 17, 2026
MIA @ CHA
106 - 136
Mar 6, 2026
MIA @ CHA
128 - 120
Nov 7, 2025
CHA @ MIA
108 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+57.4% more
Charlotte: 20.5
vs
Miami: 13.0
Turnovers (L5)
+23.1% more
Charlotte: 14.3
vs
Miami: 11.7
Blocks (L5)
+14.5% more
Charlotte: 5.6
vs
Miami: 4.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.4%
Charlotte: 85.8%
vs
Miami: 73.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
115.2
110
CHA Score
117.8
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.4 / 33.3
37.0 / 37.0
Assists
22.7 / 28.7
22.0 / 22.0
Blocks
5.6 / 4.9
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
39.3 / 46.4
44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
85.8 / 73.5
92.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
44.9 / 43.5
45.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.9
3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
20.5 / 13.0
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -148 / +124
→
-160 / +147
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5
→
-4 / +4
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 231.5
→
228
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
5-6-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -7.7
CHA
4-7-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -8.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
2-9-0
(18.2%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -7.7
CHA
Advantage
4-7-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -8.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-7-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
CHA
4-7-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
MIA
CHA
MIA
ML
64%
7-4
73%
8-3
55%
6-5
73%
8-3
ATS
45%
5-6
64%
7-4
45%
5-6
64%
7-4
TTL
45%
5-6
45%
5-6
55%
6-5
45%
5-6
Contextual Game News
Kings Eye Gabe Vincent to Fill Ben Simmons Void, Add Veteran Dep…
Deion Sanders Delivers One-Word Answer on Play-Calling, and It S…
Bulls vs. Spurs: Wembanyama's Dominance Looms Over Chicago's Str…
New London Whalers Ignite Local Buzz as Maddox-Moore and Cochran…
Suns' Bench Unleashes 81-Point Barrage in Dominant Win Over Clip…