TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
98-64 | Road
3
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
85-77 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Rasmussen
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | 1-0 | 1.29 | 0.79 | 14.0 | 17 |
| Parker Messick | 0-2 | 3.09 | 1.71 | 11.2 | 14 |
1-0
W-L
0-2
1.29 Ldr
ERA
3.09
0.79 Ldr
WHIP
1.71
14.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
11.2
17 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
14
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
51%
GUARDIANS
49%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (CLE)
RAYS
55%
Book Odds: -120
GUARDIANS
47%
Book Odds: +111
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 6.5
70%
Under 6.5
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
18.4%
CLE By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4
Cleveland
3.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
A
Sim
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 19, 2026
CLE @ TB
3 - 7
Oct 18, 2026
TB @ CLE
3 - 1
Oct 17, 2026
TB @ CLE
7 - 3
Oct 15, 2026
TB @ CLE
2 - 3
Oct 13, 2026
CLE @ TB
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.728
▲
OPS
.696
169
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.7% more
Tampa Bay: 10.0
vs
Cleveland: 7.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+7.7% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Home Runs (Season)
+4.1% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.2
3
CLE Score
3.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.6
5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 10.0
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 11.7
5.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.9 / 1.7
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -114 / -105
→
-120 / +111
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
106-70-0
(60.2%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-:
CLE
90-83-0
(52.0%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(54.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-:
CLE
(49.7%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
81-89-6
O: 47.7% / U: 52.3%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
84-88-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TB
CLE
TB
ML
59%
34-24
60%
37-25
40%
23-35
48%
30-32
ATS
52%
30-28
48%
30-32
52%
30-28
52%
32-30
TTL
59%
33-23-2
44%
26-33-3
34%
19-37-2
46%
27-32-3
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