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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

7-3-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

AVALANCHECOL

6-4-1  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Mackenzie Blackwood
GOALTENDER

Mackenzie Blackwood

#39 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 5.01 0.783 --
Mackenzie Blackwood None-None 3.00 0.912 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.01 GAA Ldr 3.00
0.783 Save % Ldr 0.912
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
43%
📊
AVALANCHE
58%
▲ Edge: +4% (COL)
LIGHTNING 49% Book Odds: +105
AVALANCHE 54% Book Odds: -115
Book Implied: 48.80% / 53.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5 50%
Under 6.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
LightningTB (+1.5) 0 AvalancheCOL (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

77.3%

Avalanche Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1 goal

9.2%

TB By 2-3 goals

6.1%

COL By 1 goal

19.1%

COL By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Avalanche Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Avalanche Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Lightning (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 TB @ COL 3 - 6
Jan 6, 2026 COL @ TB 2 - 4
Nov 4, 2025 TB @ COL 2 - 3
Nov 25, 2024 COL @ TB 2 - 8
Oct 30, 2024 TB @ COL 5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +28.5%
Tampa Bay: 36.4% vs Colorado: 8.0%
Hits (L5) +19.5% more
Tampa Bay: 19.6 vs Colorado: 15.7
Faceoff % (L5) +8.4%
Tampa Bay: 52.0% vs Colorado: 43.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 2.5 3
COL Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.5 / 14.1 20.0 / 12.0
Faceoff % 43.7 / 52.0 40.6 / 59.4
Hits 15.7 / 19.6 16.0 / 30.0
Power Play % 8.0 / 36.4 33.3 / 20.0
Shots on Goal 30.4 / 28.4 24.0 / 34.0
Takeaways 3.7 / 3.7 7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → +105 / -115 ↓
27%TICKETS73%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
74%TICKETS26%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 6.5 ↑
95%TICKETS5%
97%MONEY3%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
TB
COL
TB
ML
56% 10-8
53% 9-8
50% 9-9
76% 13-4
ATS
56% 10-8
53% 9-8
50% 9-9
53% 9-8
TTL
33% 6-12
44% 7-9-1
78% 14-4
44% 7-9-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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