Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Warriors MEM @ GS

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

2-0  |  Road

111
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

0-2  |  Home

108
Key Game
Cam Spencer
KEY GAME

Cam Spencer

#24 | Guard
@
Will Richard
KEY GAME

Will Richard

#3 | Guard
Player
Cam Spencer None-None
Will Richard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
41%
📊
WARRIORS
59%
GRIZZLIES 42% Book Odds: +140
WARRIORS 61% Book Odds: -155
Book Implied: 41.70% / 60.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
236.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 236.5 47%
Under 236.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (+4.5) 0 WarriorsGS (-4.5)
Memphis Grizzlies (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

61.8%

Warriors Cover

38.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

21.6%

MEM By 8-14 points

10.7%

GS By 1-7 points

27.2%

GS By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
116
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 116
119
GOLDEN STATE
Book Implied: 120.50
Simulated Score
108
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 116
111
GOLDEN STATE
Book Implied: 120.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Warriors Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
C
Sim Grizzlies (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 219.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 MEM @ GS 111 - 108
Feb 25, 2026 GS @ MEM 133 - 112
Feb 9, 2026 MEM @ GS 113 - 114
Oct 27, 2025 MEM @ GS 118 - 131
Apr 15, 2025 MEM @ GS 116 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +23.3% more
Golden State: 10.1 vs Memphis: 8.2
Turnovers (L5) +18.6% more
Golden State: 17.1 vs Memphis: 14.4
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Golden State: 45.8% vs Memphis: 43.9%
Blocks (L5) +54.9% more
Memphis: 4.7 vs Golden State: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 116.0 111
GS Score 119.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 33.4 34.0 / 38.0
Assists 25.5 / 24.3 23.0 / 27.0
Blocks 2.1 / 4.7 6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 43.9 41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 79.7 / 83.5 90.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 43.9 41.0 / 47.0
Steals 10.1 / 8.2 12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 17.1 / 14.4 19.0 / 27.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155 → +140 / -155
11%TICKETS89%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +4.5 / -4.5 ↑
29%TICKETS71%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 235.5 → 236.5 ↑
72%TICKETS28%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
7-3-0 (70.0%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +6.0
GS Advantage
8-3-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +9.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
7-3-0 (70.0%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +6.0
GS Advantage
8-3-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +9.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
4-6-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.5
GS
6-5-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
MEM
GS
MEM
ML
45% 5-6
50% 5-5
36% 4-7
30% 3-7
ATS
36% 4-7
50% 5-5
45% 5-6
30% 3-7
TTL
73% 8-3
50% 5-5
36% 4-7
40% 4-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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