NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
0-2 | Road
119
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
1-1 | Home
120
Key Game
KEY GAME
Bennedict Mathurin
#24 | Guard@
KEY GAME
Isaiah Collier
#8 | Guard| Player | |
|---|---|
| Bennedict Mathurin | None-None |
| Isaiah Collier | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
54%
JAZZ
46%
▲ Edge: +3.10% (NO)
PELICANS
51%
Book Odds: -105
JAZZ
51%
Book Odds: -105
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.5
Projected
Book Total
238.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 238.5
58%
Under 238.5
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (New Orleans)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)
NO By 1-7 points
27.3%
NO By 8-14 points
22.3%
UTAH By 1-7 points
19.3%
UTAH By 8-14 points
8.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
123.5
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 118.50
Utah
119
UTAH
Book Implied: 120
Simulated Score
New Orleans
112
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 118.50
Utah
111
UTAH
Book Implied: 120
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pelicans
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pelicans
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pelicans (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
A
Sim
Pelicans (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o238.5
Win
Proj Total: 242.5
B
Sim
u238.5
Loss
Proj Total: 223.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 4, 2026
UTAH @ NO
113 - 120
Oct 23, 2026
NO @ UTAH
119 - 120
Apr 7, 2026
UTAH @ NO
137 - 156
Feb 28, 2026
NO @ UTAH
115 - 105
Feb 26, 2026
NO @ UTAH
129 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.8%
New Orleans: 83.6%
vs
Utah: 66.8%
Assists (L5)
+29.6% more
Utah: 29.7
vs
New Orleans: 22.9
Turnovers (L5)
+23.9% more
Utah: 15.4
vs
New Orleans: 12.5
Turnovers (L5)
+21.4% more
Utah: 16.3
vs
New Orleans: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
123.5
119
UTAH Score
119.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 31.5
37.0 / 31.0
Assists
29.7 / 22.9
31.0 / 18.0
Blocks
6.5 / 5.5
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 45.0
49.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
66.8 / 83.6
76.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
44.0 / 47.4
42.0 / 38.0
Steals
11.2 / 9.7
4.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 13.4
18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +170 / -205
→
-105 / -105
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5.5 / -5.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 241.5
→
238.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
Advantage
4-8-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -4.8
UTAH
1-10-0
(9.1%)
Margin: -11.2
ATS +/-: -4.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
6-6-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -4.8
UTAH
2-9-0
(18.2%)
Margin: -11.2
ATS +/-: -4.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
7-5-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +7.1
UTAH
2-9-0
O: 18.2% / U: 81.8%
Total +/-: -8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
NO
UTAH
NO
ML
92%
11-1
67%
8-4
67%
8-4
67%
8-4
ATS
75%
9-3
42%
5-7
33%
4-8
67%
8-4
TTL
42%
5-7
58%
7-5
50%
6-6
50%
6-6
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