Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Spurs HOU @ SA

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

2-0  |  Road

114
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 9:30 PM ET
Moody Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

0-2  |  Home

110
Key Game
Bogdan Bogdanovic
KEY GAME

Bogdan Bogdanovic

#31 | Guard
@
Luke Kornet
KEY GAME

Luke Kornet

#7 | Center
Player
Bogdan Bogdanovic None-None
Luke Kornet None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
39%
📊
SPURS
61%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (HOU)
ROCKETS 39% Book Odds: +160
SPURS 64% Book Odds: -175
Book Implied: 38.50% / 63.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.5
Projected
Book Total
224.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +11.0 (Under)
Over 224.5 27%
Under 224.5 73%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (+4.5) 0 SpursSA (-4.5)
Houston Rockets (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

59.9%

Spurs Cover

40.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU +2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

22.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

11.4%

SA By 1-7 points

27.1%

SA By 8-14 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
105.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 110
108
SAN ANTONIO
Book Implied: 114.50
Simulated Score
109
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 110
116
SAN ANTONIO
Book Implied: 114.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spurs Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Spurs Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.5
C
Sim Spurs (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u224.5 Win
Proj Total: 213.5
A
Sim o224.5 Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 HOU @ SA 114 - 110
Mar 8, 2026 HOU @ SA 120 - 145
Jan 28, 2026 SA @ HOU 111 - 99
Jan 20, 2026 SA @ HOU 106 - 111
Nov 7, 2025 HOU @ SA 110 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +59.5% more
San Antonio: 7.6 vs Houston: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5) +5.8%
San Antonio: 79.7% vs Houston: 73.9%
Steals (L5) +32.9% more
Houston: 10.4 vs San Antonio: 7.0
Turnovers (L5) +13.6% more
Houston: 12.4 vs San Antonio: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 105.5 114
SA Score 108.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 33.5 32.0 / 40.0
Assists 21.7 / 23.7 21.0 / 25.0
Blocks 7.6 / 4.8 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 45.2 46.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 79.7 / 73.9 72.0 / 90.0
Rebounding 44.4 / 41.9 40.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.0 / 10.4 10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 14.3 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +185 / -225 → +160 / -175 ↓
10%TICKETS90%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +4.5 / -4.5 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 225.5 → 224.5 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +6.3
SA
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +6.3
SA
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +1.4
SA
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
HOU
SA
HOU
ML
75% 6-2
56% 5-4
62% 5-3
56% 5-4
ATS
50% 4-4
56% 5-4
38% 3-5
44% 4-5
TTL
62% 5-3
44% 4-5
50% 4-4
22% 2-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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