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CHICAGO

BULLSCHI

1-1  |  Road

132
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 4:00 PM ET
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MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

0-2  |  Home

125
Key Game
Tre Jones
KEY GAME

Tre Jones

#30 | Guard
@
Kasparas Jakucionis
KEY GAME

Kasparas Jakucionis

#25 | Guard
Player
Tre Jones None-None
Kasparas Jakucionis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
40%
📊
BUCKS
60%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (MIL)
BULLS 47% Book Odds: +111
BUCKS 55% Book Odds: -120
Book Implied: 47.40% / 54.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
240.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 240.5 46%
Under 240.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.6
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Milwaukee)
BullsCHI (+1.5) 0 BucksMIL (-1.5)
Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

32.3%

Bucks Cover

67.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -4.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

CHI By 1-7 points

19.2%

CHI By 8-14 points

8.5%

MIL By 1-7 points

27.3%

MIL By 8-14 points

22.5%

AI Model Projected Score
117.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 119.50
121.8
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 121
Simulated Score
108
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 119.50
111
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 121
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bucks Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Bucks Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bucks (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.6
B
Sim Bucks (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u240.5 Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
C
Sim u240.5 Loss
Proj Total: 219.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 CHI @ MIL 132 - 125
Mar 1, 2026 MIL @ CHI 97 - 120
Feb 3, 2026 CHI @ MIL 115 - 131
Dec 27, 2025 MIL @ CHI 112 - 103
Nov 7, 2025 CHI @ MIL 110 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +17.4% more
Milwaukee: 28.1 vs Chicago: 23.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.9%
Milwaukee: 37.3% vs Chicago: 22.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Milwaukee: 46.4% vs Chicago: 41.9%
Steals (L5) +33.5% more
Chicago: 9.2 vs Milwaukee: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 117.2 132
MIL Score 121.8 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 22.4 41.0 / 27.0
Assists 28.1 / 23.9 29.0 / 29.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.4 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 41.9 50.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 74.4 54.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 41.6 / 48.7 44.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.1 / 9.2 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 17.3 / 19.6 19.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110 → +111 / -120 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
42%TICKETS58%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: 239.5 → 240.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI Advantage
1-8-0 (11.1%)
Margin: -16.7 ATS +/-: -7.9
MIL
1-10-0 (9.1%)
Margin: -14.9 ATS +/-: -6.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -16.7 ATS +/-: -7.9
MIL
3-8-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -14.9 ATS +/-: -6.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: +4.3
MIL
5-6-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CHI
MIL
CHI
ML
82% 9-2
78% 7-2
73% 8-3
78% 7-2
ATS
45% 5-6
25% 2-6-1
64% 7-4
25% 2-6-1
TTL
27% 3-8
44% 4-5
36% 4-7
44% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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