Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pistons @ Heat DET @ MIA

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

2-0  |  Road

128
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 8:00 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

0-2  |  Home

111
Key Game
Daniss Jenkins
KEY GAME

Daniss Jenkins

#24 | Guard
@
Ryan Conwell
KEY GAME

Ryan Conwell

#4 | Guard
Player
Daniss Jenkins None-None
Ryan Conwell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
57%
📊
HEAT
43%
▲ Edge: +1.80% (DET)
PISTONS 56% Book Odds: -125
HEAT 47% Book Odds: +115
Book Implied: 55.60% / 46.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.6
Projected
Book Total
235.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 235.0 50%
Under 235.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Detroit)
PistonsDET (-1.5) 0 HeatMIA (+1.5)
Detroit Pistons (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

65.5%

Heat Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-7 points

27.4%

DET By 8-14 points

21.6%

MIA By 1-7 points

20.1%

MIA By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
119.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 118.20
115.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 116.80
Simulated Score
110
DETROIT
Book Implied: 118.20
108
MIAMI
Book Implied: 116.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pistons Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Pistons Win
56% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pistons (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Pistons (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o235.0 Win
Proj Total: 235.6
D
Sim u235.0 Loss
Proj Total: 218.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 DET @ MIA 128 - 111
Mar 8, 2026 DET @ MIA 110 - 121
Jan 1, 2026 MIA @ DET 118 - 112
Nov 29, 2025 DET @ MIA 138 - 135
Mar 19, 2025 DET @ MIA 116 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.3% more
Detroit: 8.2 vs Miami: 6.4
Turnovers (L5) +21.9% more
Detroit: 14.9 vs Miami: 11.7
Turnovers (L5) +17.7% more
Detroit: 16.4 vs Miami: 13.5
Blocks (L5) +12.3% more
Detroit: 5.6 vs Miami: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 119.8 128
MIA Score 115.8 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 37.4 29.0 / 47.0
Assists 31.1 / 24.6 24.0 / 34.0
Blocks 4.9 / 5.6 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 50.6 / 44.3 38.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 78.2 / 80.5 64.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 40.8 / 43.7 49.0 / 53.0
Steals 6.4 / 8.2 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 16.4 12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → -125 / +115 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 234.5 → 235 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
7-3-0 (70.0%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +4.3
MIA
5-6-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -7.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
7-3-0 (70.0%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +4.3
MIA
2-9-0 (18.2%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -7.7
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
5-5-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.1
MIA
4-7-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DET
MIA
DET
ML
73% 8-3
80% 8-2
73% 8-3
80% 8-2
ATS
64% 7-4
80% 8-2
64% 7-4
90% 9-1
TTL
45% 5-6
50% 5-5
45% 5-6
80% 8-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
NBA's Last Two-Minute Report Backs Officials on Contested Collis…
yahoo 13 hours, 30 minutes ago
Detroit Pistons Off to Scorching Start: Five Factors Fueling The…
theathleticuk 1 day, 1 hour ago
Austin Reaves Shrugs Off Courtside Heckler During Lakers' Win Ov…
yahoo 1 day, 7 hours ago
Yaxel Lendeborg Dethrones Michael Jordan as GOAT, Crowns Steph C…
yahoo 1 day, 7 hours ago
Milwaukee's NBA All-Star Hopes Dashed Again as Miami Secures 202…
yahoo 1 day, 13 hours ago