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TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

2-0  |  Road

112
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

1-1  |  Home

102
Key Game
Alijah Martin
KEY GAME

Alijah Martin

#55 | Guard
@
Tre Johnson
KEY GAME

Tre Johnson

#12 | Guard
Player
Alijah Martin None-None
Tre Johnson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
77%
📊
WIZARDS
23%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (TOR)
RAPTORS 75% Book Odds: -304
WIZARDS 27% Book Odds: +269
Book Implied: 75.20% / 27.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.5
Projected
Book Total
237.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 237.0 46%
Under 237.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
-8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Toronto)
RaptorsTOR (-8.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+8.5)
Toronto Raptors (-8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

89.4%

Wizards Cover

10.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR -12.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-7 points

19.3%

TOR By 8-14 points

27.1%

WSH By 1-7 points

7.4%

WSH By 8-14 points

1.9%

AI Model Projected Score
123.5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 122.80
111
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 114.20
Simulated Score
110
TORONTO
Book Implied: 122.80
107
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 114.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raptors Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim Raptors Win
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Raptors (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.5
B
Sim Wizards (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u237.0 Win
Proj Total: 234.5
C
Sim u237.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 TOR @ WSH 112 - 102
Feb 28, 2026 TOR @ WSH 134 - 125
Dec 26, 2025 TOR @ WSH 117 - 138
Nov 21, 2025 WSH @ TOR 110 - 140
Mar 24, 2025 TOR @ WSH 112 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +19.8% more
Toronto: 6.0 vs Washington: 4.8
Steals (L5) +11.6% more
Toronto: 11.8 vs Washington: 10.4
Rebounding (L5) +11.0% more
Toronto: 43.5 vs Washington: 38.7
Turnovers (L5) +23.7% more
Washington: 14.3 vs Toronto: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 123.5 112
WSH Score 111.0 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 33.2 32.0 / 21.0
Assists 26.7 / 28.0 21.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.8 / 6.0 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 45.4 38.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 75.1 86.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 38.7 / 43.5 40.0 / 53.0
Steals 10.4 / 11.8 10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 13.4 23.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -185 / +154 → -304 / +269 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4.5 / +4.5 → -8.5 / +8.5 ↓
63%TICKETS37%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 235.5 → 237 ↑
90%TICKETS10%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +0.6
WSH
4-7-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -5.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +0.6
WSH
5-6-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -5.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
5-5-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.6
WSH
3-8-0
O: 27.3% / U: 72.7% Total +/-: -8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TOR
WSH
TOR
ML
64% 7-4
70% 7-3
82% 9-2
60% 6-4
ATS
45% 5-6
40% 4-6
73% 8-3
20% 2-8
TTL
64% 7-4
60% 6-4
91% 10-1
30% 3-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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