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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

1-1  |  Road

121
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

1-1  |  Home

105
Key Game
Walter Clayton Jr.
KEY GAME

Walter Clayton Jr.

#1 | Guard
@
Quenton Jackson
KEY GAME

Quenton Jackson

#29 | Guard
Player
Walter Clayton Jr. None-None
Quenton Jackson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
40%
📊
PACERS
60%
▲ Edge: +7.70% (DAL)
MAVERICKS 32% Book Odds: +210
PACERS 70% Book Odds: -235
Book Implied: 32.30% / 70.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.5
Projected
Book Total
241.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 241.5 45%
Under 241.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.5
DALLAS
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (+7.5) 0 PacersIND (-7.5)
Dallas Mavericks (+7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

59.9%

Pacers Cover

40.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL +2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

22.3%

DAL By 8-14 points

11.4%

IND By 1-7 points

27.1%

IND By 8-14 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
117.5
DALLAS
Book Implied: 117
120
INDIANA
Book Implied: 124.50
Simulated Score
105
DALLAS
Book Implied: 117
115
INDIANA
Book Implied: 124.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Pacers Loss
76% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.5
B
Sim Pacers (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u241.5 Win
Proj Total: 237.5
C
Sim u241.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2026 IND @ DAL 122 - 125
Oct 23, 2026 DAL @ IND 121 - 105
Feb 22, 2026 DAL @ IND 134 - 130
Oct 29, 2025 IND @ DAL 105 - 107
Mar 19, 2025 DAL @ IND 131 - 135
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +36.8% more
Indiana: 16.1 vs Dallas: 11.8
Assists (L5) +19.8% more
Indiana: 30.5 vs Dallas: 25.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 117.5 121
IND Score 120.0 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 35.0 22.0 / 41.0
Assists 30.5 / 25.4 27.0 / 28.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.9 6.0 / 11.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 48.2 44.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 77.7 71.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 43.2 / 42.2 42.0 / 46.0
Steals 9.3 / 9.5 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 15.3 21.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +170 / -205 → +210 / -235 ↑
9%TICKETS91%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5.5 / -5.5 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↑
31%TICKETS69%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: 234.5 → 241.5 ↑
86%TICKETS14%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
7-4-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: +8.0
IND
3-8-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
7-4-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: +8.0
IND
6-5-0 (54.6%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
3-8-0
O: 27.3% / U: 72.7% Total +/-: -4.9
IND
4-7-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -6.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
DAL
IND
DAL
ML
73% 8-3
55% 6-5
55% 6-5
55% 6-5
ATS
55% 6-5
45% 5-6
55% 6-5
55% 6-5
TTL
36% 4-7
73% 8-3
64% 7-4
64% 7-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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