Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hawks @ Hornets ATL @ CHA

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

2-0  |  Road

128
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 7:00 PM ET
Spectrum Center
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

1-1  |  Home

81
Key Game
Kingston Flemings
KEY GAME

Kingston Flemings

#4 | Guard
@
Liam McNeeley
KEY GAME

Liam McNeeley

#33 | Guard
Player
Kingston Flemings None-None
Liam McNeeley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
44%
📊
HORNETS
56%
▲ Edge: +10.50% (CHA)
HAWKS 56% Book Odds: -128
HORNETS 46% Book Odds: +118
Book Implied: 56.10% / 45.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.4
Projected
Book Total
226.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.6 (Under)
Over 226.0 45%
Under 226.0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Charlotte)
HawksATL (-2.5) 0 HornetsCHA (+2.5)
Charlotte Hornets (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

34.5%

Hornets Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)

ATL By 1-7 points

20.1%

ATL By 8-14 points

9.3%

CHA By 1-7 points

27.4%

CHA By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
110.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 114.20
114.2
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 111.80
Simulated Score
102
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 114.20
107
CHARLOTTE
Book Implied: 111.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hornets Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Hornets (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Sim Hornets (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u226.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.4
C
Sim u226.0 Win
Proj Total: 209.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 ATL @ CHA 128 - 81
Feb 11, 2026 ATL @ CHA 107 - 110
Feb 7, 2026 CHA @ ATL 126 - 119
Dec 18, 2025 ATL @ CHA 126 - 133
Nov 23, 2025 CHA @ ATL 110 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.4% more
Charlotte: 4.9 vs Atlanta: 3.8
Rebounding (L5) +14.2% more
Charlotte: 43.3 vs Atlanta: 37.9
Free Throw % (L5) +11.6%
Charlotte: 87.3% vs Atlanta: 75.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Atlanta: 44.7% vs Charlotte: 42.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 110.2 128
CHA Score 114.2 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 33.0 22.0 / 40.0
Assists 23.6 / 24.5 21.0 / 37.0
Blocks 4.9 / 3.8 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 44.7 34.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 87.3 / 75.6 83.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 43.3 / 37.9 48.0 / 48.0
Steals 7.3 / 7.6 7.0 / 17.0
Turnovers 17.2 / 16.0 27.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +120 → -128 / +118
87%TICKETS13%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -2.5 / +2.5
82%TICKETS18%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 226.5 → 226 ↓
94%TICKETS6%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
7-5-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: -0.9
CHA
4-7-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -8.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: -0.9
CHA Advantage
4-7-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -8.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
7-5-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +2.6
CHA
4-7-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
ATL
CHA
ATL
ML
64% 7-4
50% 6-6
55% 6-5
67% 8-4
ATS
45% 5-6
42% 5-7
45% 5-6
75% 9-3
TTL
45% 5-6
42% 5-7
55% 6-5
58% 7-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Mike Brown Speaks Out on Knicks' Comeback from Dismal 0-3 Start
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Paul George Explodes for 36 as Celtics Rout 76ers; Nick Nurse Cr…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Dyson Daniels Declares Luka Doncic the NBA's Toughest Cover Afte…
yahoo 3 hours, 42 minutes ago
LeBron James Assures Family Safety After Stalker Arrest, Returns…
newyorkbeacon_net 3 hours, 43 minutes ago
Lakers Cut Ties with Seven-Footer Lawson Lovering After Brief Tw…
si 3 hours, 43 minutes ago