Home / NBA Projections NBA / Knicks @ Celtics NY @ BOS

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

0-2  |  Road

103
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 7:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

1-1  |  Home

107
Key Game
Miles McBride
KEY GAME

Miles McBride

#2 | Guard
@
Hugo Gonzalez
KEY GAME

Hugo Gonzalez

#28 | Guard
Player
Miles McBride None-None
Hugo Gonzalez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KNICKS
58%
📊
CELTICS
42%
▲ Edge: +14.30% (NY)
KNICKS 44% Book Odds: +128
CELTICS 58% Book Odds: -139
Book Implied: 43.90% / 58.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.0
Projected
Book Total
220.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 220.5 45%
Under 220.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 points (New York)
KnicksNY (+2.5) 0 CelticsBOS (-2.5)
New York Knicks (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knicks Cover

67.0%

Celtics Cover

33.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NY -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

NY By 1-7 points

27.3%

NY By 8-14 points

22.2%

BOS By 1-7 points

19.5%

BOS By 8-14 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
111.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 109
106.8
BOSTON
Book Implied: 111.50
Simulated Score
110
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 109
113
BOSTON
Book Implied: 111.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knicks Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Celtics Win
58% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knicks (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.4
A
Sim Celtics (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u220.5 Win
Proj Total: 218.0
C
Sim o220.5 Loss
Proj Total: 223.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 NY @ BOS 103 - 107
Apr 9, 2026 BOS @ NY 106 - 112
Feb 8, 2026 NY @ BOS 111 - 89
Dec 2, 2025 NY @ BOS 117 - 123
Oct 24, 2025 BOS @ NY 95 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +18.2% more
New York: 14.2 vs Boston: 11.6
Blocks (L5) +13.9% more
New York: 5.6 vs Boston: 4.8
Rebounding (L5) +8.5% more
New York: 47.9 vs Boston: 43.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
New York: 36.0% vs Boston: 34.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NY Score 111.2 103
BOS Score 106.8 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 36.0 38.0 / 40.0
Assists 23.8 / 20.7 25.0 / 27.0
Blocks 4.8 / 5.6 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 40.7 46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 73.2 75.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 43.8 / 47.9 37.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.1 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 14.2 11.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130 → +128 / -139 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +2.5 / -2.5
44%TICKETS56%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 223.5 → 220.5 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NY
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.5
BOS Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NY
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -1.5
BOS Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NY
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.9
BOS
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NY
BOS
NY
ML
88% 7-1
50% 4-4
100% 8-0
62% 5-3
ATS
71% 5-2-1
25% 2-6
57% 4-3-1
62% 5-3
TTL
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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