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WINNIPEG

JETSWPG

4-3-3  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Oct 22 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

6-3-1  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Stuart Skinner
GOALTENDER

Stuart Skinner

#74 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Stuart Skinner None-None 2.82 0.921 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 1.90 0.895 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.82 GAA Ldr 1.90
0.921 Ldr Save % 0.895
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
28%
📊
STARS
72%
▲ Edge: +6% (DAL)
JETS 38% Book Odds: +164
STARS 66% Book Odds: -198
Book Implied: 37.90% / 66.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
Over 5.5 49%
Under 5.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
JetsWPG (+1.5) 0 StarsDAL (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

77.3%

Stars Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WPG +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)

WPG By 1 goal

9.2%

WPG By 2-3 goals

6.1%

DAL By 1 goal

19.1%

DAL By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2
WINNIPEG
Book Implied: 2
3.5
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
2
WINNIPEG
Book Implied: 2
3
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Stars Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Stars Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jets (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Jets (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 22, 2026 WPG @ DAL 2 - 3
Apr 2, 2026 WPG @ DAL 0 - 3
Feb 2, 2026 WPG @ DAL 3 - 4
Dec 9, 2025 DAL @ WPG 4 - 3
Oct 9, 2025 DAL @ WPG 5 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +16.1%
Dallas: 28.7% vs Winnipeg: 12.6%
Blocked Shots (L5) +11.3% more
Dallas: 14.6 vs Winnipeg: 13.1
Faceoff % (L5) +10.4%
Dallas: 56.4% vs Winnipeg: 46.0%
Hits (L5) +17.9% more
Winnipeg: 26.0 vs Dallas: 21.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WPG Score 2.0 2
DAL Score 3.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.6 / 13.1 14.0 / 7.0
Faceoff % 56.4 / 46.0 61.5 / 38.5
Hits 21.4 / 26.0 15.0 / 24.0
Power Play % 2873.0 / 1263.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 26.0 / 28.3 38.0 / 19.0
Takeaways 4.2 / 4.1 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +170 / -205 → +164 / -198 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
52%TICKETS48%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
76%TICKETS24%
72%MONEY28%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
WPG
DAL
WPG
ML
59% 10-7
61% 11-7
47% 8-9
56% 10-8
ATS
35% 6-11
33% 6-12
53% 9-8
78% 14-4
TTL
59% 10-7
50% 9-9
59% 10-7
44% 8-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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