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DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

0-1  |  Road

84
FINAL
Thu, Oct 22 • 9:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

2-0  |  Home

96
Key Game
Ryan Nembhard
KEY GAME

Ryan Nembhard

#9 | Guard
@
Bennett Stirtz
KEY GAME

Bennett Stirtz

#14 | Guard
Player
Ryan Nembhard None-None
Bennett Stirtz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
37%
📊
THUNDER
63%
▲ Edge: +7.20% (DEN)
NUGGETS 30% Book Odds: +235
THUNDER 72% Book Odds: -260
Book Implied: 29.90% / 72.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
236.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +7.5 (Under)
Over 236.5 34%
Under 236.5 66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.6
DENVER
Book Spread
+8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (Denver)
NuggetsDEN (+8.5) 0 ThunderOKC (-8.5)
Denver Nuggets (+8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

60.3%

Thunder Cover

39.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN +2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

22.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

11.3%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
113.2
DENVER
Book Implied: 114
115.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Implied: 122.50
Simulated Score
120
DENVER
Book Implied: 114
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Implied: 122.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Nuggets Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Nuggets (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.6
B
Sim Nuggets (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
A
Sim u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 22, 2026 DEN @ OKC 84 - 96
Apr 10, 2026 OKC @ DEN 107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026 DEN @ OKC 126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026 DEN @ OKC 121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026 OKC @ DEN 121 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +19.2% more
Oklahoma City: 43.4 vs Denver: 36.4
Steals (L5) +16.3% more
Oklahoma City: 8.9 vs Denver: 7.7
Turnovers (L5) +12.3% more
Oklahoma City: 14.3 vs Denver: 12.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Oklahoma City: 37.1% vs Denver: 33.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 113.2 84
OKC Score 115.8 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 33.6 26.0 / 27.0
Assists 24.1 / 25.8 22.0 / 17.0
Blocks 6.2 / 5.8 9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 46.0 38.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 82.8 / 81.4 93.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 43.4 / 36.4 46.0 / 53.0
Steals 8.9 / 7.7 12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 12.7 12.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +225 / -278 → +235 / -260 ↓
9%TICKETS91%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5 → +8.5 / -8.5 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 232.5 → 236.5 ↑
69%TICKETS31%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -6.3
OKC Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -6.3
OKC Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -7.0
OKC
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -11.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DEN
OKC
DEN
ML
57% 4-3
67% 4-2
43% 3-4
33% 2-4
ATS
29% 2-5
33% 2-4
29% 2-5
33% 2-4
TTL
86% 6-1
50% 3-3
71% 5-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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