Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Jaguars IND @ JAX

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

2-6  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

5-2  |  Home

42
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
31%
📊
JAGUARS
69%
▲ Edge: +10.50% (IND)
COLTS 21% Book Odds: +377
JAGUARS 82% Book Odds: -461
Book Implied: 21% / 82.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.5
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 45.5 53%
Under 45.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.5
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
+10.5
Book Line
ColtsIND (+10.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (-10.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+10.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

77.3%

Jaguars Cover

22.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND +10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-6 points

10.4%

IND By 7-13 points

6.9%

JAX By 1-6 points

15.0%

JAX By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
18
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 17.50
28.5
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 28
Simulated Score
22
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 17.50
27
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 28
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Jaguars Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Jaguars Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colts (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.5
D
Sim Colts (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.5
D
Sim o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 IND @ JAX 7 - 42
Dec 28, 2025 JAX @ IND 23 - 17
Dec 7, 2025 IND @ JAX 19 - 36
Jan 5, 2025 JAX @ IND 23 - 26
Oct 6, 2024 IND @ JAX 34 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +59.0% more
Jacksonville: 260.2 vs Indianapolis: 163.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +32.8% more
Jacksonville: 5.8 vs Indianapolis: 4.4
Total Yards (L5) +25.9% more
Jacksonville: 368.9 vs Indianapolis: 293.1
First Downs (L5) +14.0% more
Jacksonville: 21.1 vs Indianapolis: 18.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 18.0 7
JAX Score 28.5 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 18.5 18.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 260.2 / 163.7 183.0 / 134.0
Rushing Yards 108.7 / 129.4 183.0 / 109.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 368.9 / 293.1 366.0 / 243.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.6 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 4.4 6.9 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +185 / -225 → +377 / -461 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 45.5 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
JAX Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 12.1 ATS +/-: +8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
JAX Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 12.1 ATS +/-: +8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +3.4
JAX
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
IND
JAX
IND
ML
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
ATS
57% 4-3
25% 2-6
29% 2-5
38% 3-5
TTL
86% 6-1
50% 4-4
71% 5-2
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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