Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Jets LV @ NYJ

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

4-4  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

2-6  |  Home

33
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
Player
AJ Cole None-None
Austin McNamara None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
48%
📊
JETS
52%
▲ Edge: +2.20% (LV)
RAIDERS 46% Book Odds: +116
JETS 56% Book Odds: -128
Book Implied: 46.30% / 56.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.4
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.1 (Under)
Over 46.5 47%
Under 46.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
LAS VEGAS
Book Spread
+1
Book Line
RaidersLV (+1) 0 JetsNYJ (-1)
Line aligns with book spread (+1)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

52.8%

Jets Cover

47.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LV +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LV)

LV By 1-6 points

16.1%

LV By 7-13 points

14.6%

NYJ By 1-6 points

16.7%

NYJ By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 22.80
23.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 23.80
Simulated Score
19
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 22.80
22
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 23.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jets Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raiders (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Jets (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.4
D
Sim u46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 LV @ NYJ 38 - 33
Nov 12, 2023 NYJ @ LV 12 - 16
Dec 6, 2020 LV @ NYJ 31 - 28
Nov 24, 2019 LV @ NYJ 3 - 34
Sep 17, 2017 NYJ @ LV 20 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +64.4% more
New York: 100.1 vs Las Vegas: 60.9
Turnovers (L5) +23.0% more
New York: 1.0 vs Las Vegas: 0.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +25.3% more
Las Vegas: 284.1 vs New York: 212.1
First Downs (L5) +13.7% more
Las Vegas: 20.3 vs New York: 17.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 22.2 38
NYJ Score 23.2 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 20.3 26.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 212.1 / 284.1 273.0 / 238.0
Rushing Yards 100.1 / 60.9 166.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 312.3 / 345.0 439.0 / 333.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.5 7.2 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +102 / -122 → +116 / -128 ↑
70%TICKETS30%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1 / -1 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: 40.5 → 46.5 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +1.9
NYJ
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +1.9
NYJ
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.5
NYJ
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
LV
NYJ
LV
ML
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
ATS
43% 3-4-1
38% 3-5
43% 3-4-1
38% 3-5
TTL
25% 2-6
25% 2-6
25% 2-6
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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