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PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

3-6-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 7:30 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

4-4-2  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Dan Vladar
GOALTENDER

Dan Vladar

#80 | Goaltender
@
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dan Vladar None-None 1.00 0.964 --
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 3.13 0.885 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 3.13
0.964 Ldr Save % 0.885
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
30%
📊
SABRES
70%
▲ Edge: +2.50% (BUF)
FLYERS 36% Book Odds: +182
SABRES 67% Book Odds: -205
Book Implied: 35.50% / 67.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
Over 6.0 50%
Under 6.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
BUFFALO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Buffalo)
FlyersPHI (+1.5) 0 SabresBUF (-1.5)
Buffalo Sabres (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

21.2%

Sabres Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

PHI By 1 goal

8.6%

PHI By 2-3 goals

5.5%

BUF By 1 goal

18.9%

BUF By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.20
3.8
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.20
3
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Sabres Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Sabres Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sabres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Flyers (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 PHI @ BUF 3 - 1
Jan 14, 2026 PHI @ BUF 2 - 5
Dec 18, 2025 PHI @ BUF 3 - 5
Dec 3, 2025 BUF @ PHI 2 - 5
Apr 17, 2025 PHI @ BUF 4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +16.0% more
Buffalo: 27.0 vs Philadelphia: 23.3
Blocked Shots (L5) +37.3% more
Philadelphia: 18.8 vs Buffalo: 11.8
Hits (L5) +23.4% more
Philadelphia: 25.5 vs Buffalo: 19.5
Power Play % (L5) +20.7%
Philadelphia: 26.3% vs Buffalo: 5.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 2.2 3
BUF Score 3.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 11.8 / 18.8 13.0 / 13.0
Faceoff % 43.4 / 51.8 56.3 / 43.8
Hits 19.5 / 25.5 14.0 / 19.0
Power Play % 5.6 / 26.3 33.3 / 20.0
Shots on Goal 27.0 / 23.3 28.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 4.7 / 5.3 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +160 / -192 → +182 / -205 ↑
10%TICKETS90%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
44%TICKETS56%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 6 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
96%MONEY4%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
PHI
BUF
PHI
ML
76% 13-4
53% 10-9
41% 7-10
47% 9-10
ATS
47% 8-9
37% 7-12
71% 12-5
47% 9-10
TTL
53% 9-8
61% 11-7-1
47% 8-9
44% 8-10-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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