Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Clippers SAC @ LAC

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

0-1  |  Road

96
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 10:30 PM ET
Intuit Dome
View Odds Details →

LA

CLIPPERSLAC

1-0  |  Home

121
Key Game
Emanuel Sharp
KEY GAME

Emanuel Sharp

#34 | Guard
@
Keaton Wagler
KEY GAME

Keaton Wagler

#1 | Guard
Player
Emanuel Sharp None-None
Keaton Wagler None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
30%
📊
CLIPPERS
70%
▲ Edge: +4.80% (LAC)
KINGS 39% Book Odds: +154
CLIPPERS 65% Book Odds: -185
Book Implied: 39.40% / 64.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
226.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 226.5 52%
Under 226.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.4
LA
Book Spread
-5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (LA)
KingsSAC (+5.5) 0 ClippersLAC (-5.5)
LA Clippers (-5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

20.0%

Clippers Cover

80.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAC -8.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

13.1%

SAC By 8-14 points

4.5%

LAC By 1-7 points

24.9%

LAC By 8-14 points

26.5%

AI Model Projected Score
109.8
SACRAMENTO
Book Implied: 110.50
118.2
LA
Book Implied: 116
Simulated Score
113
SACRAMENTO
Book Implied: 110.50
118
LA
Book Implied: 116
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Clippers Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Clippers Win
64% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Clippers (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.4
B
Sim Kings (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o226.5 Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim o226.5 Loss
Proj Total: 231.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 SAC @ LAC 96 - 121
Apr 5, 2026 LAC @ SAC 138 - 109
Mar 14, 2026 SAC @ LAC 118 - 109
Feb 6, 2026 LAC @ SAC 114 - 111
Dec 30, 2025 SAC @ LAC 90 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +18.2%
LA: 90.3% vs Sacramento: 72.1%
Steals (L5) +15.3% more
LA: 9.3 vs Sacramento: 8.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
LA: 37.9% vs Sacramento: 34.4%
Blocks (L5) +42.0% more
Sacramento: 6.5 vs LA: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 109.8 96
LAC Score 118.2 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 34.4 40.0 / 29.0
Assists 26.0 / 24.5 29.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.8 / 6.5 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 47.9 52.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 90.3 / 72.1 68.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 45.6 49.0 / 42.0
Steals 9.3 / 8.1 14.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 16.3 18.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155 → +154 / -185 ↑
9%TICKETS91%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↑
27%TICKETS73%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: 230.5 → 226.5 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -14.1 ATS +/-: -5.5
LAC
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -14.1 ATS +/-: -5.5
LAC Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +2.6
LAC
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
SAC
LAC
SAC
ML
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
ATS
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
TTL
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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