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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

0-1  |  Road

83
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

1-0  |  Home

124
Key Game
Pat Spencer
KEY GAME

Pat Spencer

#61 | Guard
@
Sidy Cissoko
KEY GAME

Sidy Cissoko

#91 | Guard
Player
Pat Spencer None-None
Sidy Cissoko None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
44%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
56%
▲ Edge: +2.20% (PHX)
SUNS 42% Book Odds: +140
TRAIL BLAZERS 60% Book Odds: -152
Book Implied: 41.70% / 60.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.5
Projected
Book Total
232.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +9.0 (Under)
Over 232.5 33%
Under 232.5 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
PHOENIX
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Phoenix)
SunsPHX (+3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5)
Phoenix Suns (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

56.0%

Trail Blazers Cover

44.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

PHX By 1-7 points

23.7%

PHX By 8-14 points

12.9%

POR By 1-7 points

26.6%

POR By 8-14 points

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
111
PHOENIX
Book Implied: 114.50
112.5
PORTLAND
Book Implied: 118
Simulated Score
115
PHOENIX
Book Implied: 114.50
120
PORTLAND
Book Implied: 118
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
64% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Suns (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.5
D
Sim Trail Blazers (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.5
A
Sim o232.5 Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 PHX @ POR 83 - 124
Apr 14, 2026 POR @ PHX 114 - 110
Feb 22, 2026 POR @ PHX 92 - 77
Feb 3, 2026 PHX @ POR 130 - 125
Nov 18, 2025 PHX @ POR 127 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +17.0% more
Portland: 4.5 vs Phoenix: 3.8
Turnovers (L5) +12.0% more
Phoenix: 14.6 vs Portland: 12.8
Field Goal % (L5) +7.4%
Phoenix: 47.1% vs Portland: 39.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Phoenix: 34.7% vs Portland: 30.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 111.0 83
POR Score 112.5 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.0 / 34.7 40.0 / 19.0
Assists 21.5 / 22.9 32.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.8 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 39.7 / 47.1 48.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 77.5 / 79.2 83.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 38.8 56.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.7 / 7.2 12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 14.6 17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162 → +140 / -152 ↓
16%TICKETS84%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↓
43%TICKETS57%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 235.5 → 232.5 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.6 ATS +/-: -8.7
POR Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +7.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -10.6 ATS +/-: -8.7
POR Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +7.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +7.9
POR
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
PHX
POR
PHX
ML
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
ATS
67% 4-2
20% 1-4
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
TTL
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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