DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
0-1 | Road
110
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
1-0 | Home
128
Key Game
KEY GAME
Marcus Sasser
#8 | Guard@
KEY GAME
Bruce Thornton
#2 | Guard| Player | |
|---|---|
| Marcus Sasser | None-None |
| Bruce Thornton | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
21%
ROCKETS
79%
MAVERICKS
23%
Book Odds: +338
ROCKETS
80%
Book Odds: -390
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
230.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 230.5
39%
Under 230.5
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
DAL By 1-7 points
9.3%
DAL By 8-14 points
2.7%
HOU By 1-7 points
21.6%
HOU By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
107
DALLAS
Book Implied: 110.20
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 120.20
Simulated Score
Dallas
110
DALLAS
Book Implied: 110.20
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 120.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rockets
Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim
Rockets
Win
71% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (-10)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+10)
Loss
Proj Spread: +8.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u230.5
Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
B
Sim
u230.5
Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 30, 2026
HOU @ DAL
111 - 116
Oct 21, 2026
DAL @ HOU
110 - 128
Jan 31, 2026
DAL @ HOU
107 - 111
Jan 3, 2026
HOU @ DAL
104 - 110
Dec 6, 2025
HOU @ DAL
109 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+20.8% more
Houston: 10.0
vs
Dallas: 8.3
Blocks (L5)
+15.2% more
Houston: 6.1
vs
Dallas: 5.3
Assists (L5)
+30.3% more
Dallas: 28.1
vs
Houston: 19.6
Rebounding (L5)
+10.6% more
Dallas: 46.8
vs
Houston: 41.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
107.0
110
HOU Score
118.0
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.3 / 37.6
44.0 / 30.0
Assists
19.6 / 28.1
32.0 / 20.0
Blocks
6.1 / 5.3
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.3 / 46.3
53.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
74.9 / 84.1
72.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
41.8 / 46.8
42.0 / 33.0
Steals
10.0 / 8.3
11.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 12.5
16.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +250 / -310
→
+338 / -390
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5
→
+10 / -10
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 226.5
→
230.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
4-3-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +6.2
HOU
Advantage
7-1-0
(87.5%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: +9.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
4-3-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +6.2
HOU
Advantage
7-1-0
(87.5%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: +9.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -7.8
HOU
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DAL
HOU
DAL
ML
62%
5-3
29%
2-5
62%
5-3
29%
2-5
ATS
50%
4-4
29%
2-5
38%
3-5
57%
4-3
TTL
38%
3-5
86%
6-1
25%
2-6
71%
5-2
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