Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Pelicans IND @ NO

INDIANA

PACERSIND

1-0  |  Road

123
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

0-1  |  Home

120
Key Game
Quenton Jackson
KEY GAME

Quenton Jackson

#29 | Guard
@
Bennedict Mathurin
KEY GAME

Bennedict Mathurin

#24 | Guard
Player
Quenton Jackson None-None
Bennedict Mathurin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
52%
📊
PELICANS
48%
▲ Edge: +3.80% (NO)
PACERS 57% Book Odds: -135
PELICANS 44% Book Odds: +125
Book Implied: 57.40% / 44.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.5
Projected
Book Total
238.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 238.5 48%
Under 238.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New Orleans)
PacersIND (-2.5) 0 PelicansNO (+2.5)
New Orleans Pelicans (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

48.0%

Pelicans Cover

52.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

IND By 1-7 points

25.8%

IND By 8-14 points

16.1%

NO By 1-7 points

24.8%

NO By 8-14 points

14.5%

AI Model Projected Score
119
INDIANA
Book Implied: 120.50
118.5
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 118
Simulated Score
123
INDIANA
Book Implied: 120.50
119
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 118
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +0.5
C
Sim Pacers (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u238.5 Loss
Proj Total: 237.5
D
Sim o238.5 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 IND @ NO 123 - 120
Jan 16, 2026 NO @ IND 119 - 127
Dec 20, 2025 IND @ NO 109 - 128
Dec 15, 2024 NO @ IND 104 - 119
Nov 25, 2024 NO @ IND 110 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +26.9% more
Indiana: 31.2 vs New Orleans: 22.8
Turnovers (L5) +22.9% more
Indiana: 16.1 vs New Orleans: 12.5
Turnovers (L5) +20.0% more
Indiana: 15.8 vs New Orleans: 12.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Indiana: 36.1% vs New Orleans: 30.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 119.0 123
NO Score 118.5 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 36.1 33.0 / 30.0
Assists 22.8 / 31.2 23.0 / 29.0
Blocks 5.3 / 5.1 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 45.6 43.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 79.3 / 81.0 92.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 46.7 / 43.3 49.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.1 / 9.4 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 15.8 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -155 / +130 → -135 / +125 ↑
85%TICKETS15%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4.5 / +4.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↑
72%TICKETS28%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: 243.5 → 238.5 ↓
59%TICKETS41%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -3.3
NO Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: +5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -3.3
NO Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: +5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -7.6
NO
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +4.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
IND
NO
IND
ML
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
71% 5-2
50% 4-4
ATS
29% 2-5
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
TTL
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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