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UTAH

JAZZUTAH

0-1  |  Road

103
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 8:00 PM ET
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MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

1-0  |  Home

123
Key Game
Ace Bailey
KEY GAME

Ace Bailey

#19 | Guard
@
Cam Spencer
KEY GAME

Cam Spencer

#24 | Guard
Player
Ace Bailey None-None
Cam Spencer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
40%
📊
GRIZZLIES
60%
▲ Edge: +6.70% (MEM)
JAZZ 48% Book Odds: +110
GRIZZLIES 54% Book Odds: -115
Book Implied: 47.60% / 53.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.0
Projected
Book Total
240.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 240.5 64%
Under 240.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.4
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Memphis)
JazzUTAH (+1.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (-1.5)
Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

29.5%

Grizzlies Cover

70.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -5.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

UTAH By 1-7 points

17.9%

UTAH By 8-14 points

7.5%

MEM By 1-7 points

27.1%

MEM By 8-14 points

23.5%

AI Model Projected Score
120.8
UTAH
Book Implied: 119.50
126.2
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 121
Simulated Score
123
UTAH
Book Implied: 119.50
121
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 121
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Jazz Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Grizzlies (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.4
B
Sim Jazz (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o240.5 Loss
Proj Total: 247.0
B
Sim o240.5 Loss
Proj Total: 244.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2026 MEM @ UTAH 110 - 105
Oct 21, 2026 UTAH @ MEM 103 - 123
Apr 10, 2026 MEM @ UTAH 101 - 147
Feb 20, 2026 UTAH @ MEM 114 - 123
Dec 23, 2025 MEM @ UTAH 137 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +19.1%
Memphis: 85.8% vs Utah: 66.7%
Steals (L5) +32.7% more
Utah: 12.3 vs Memphis: 8.3
Assists (L5) +21.8% more
Utah: 32.0 vs Memphis: 25.0
Rebounding (L5) +18.6% more
Utah: 47.1 vs Memphis: 38.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 120.8 103
MEM Score 126.2 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 30.9 38.0 / 33.0
Assists 25.0 / 32.0 23.0 / 25.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.7 7.0 / 12.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 48.2 47.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 85.8 / 66.7 79.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 38.3 / 47.1 55.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.3 / 12.3 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 15.5 15.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +110 → +110 / -115 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 242.5 → 240.5 ↓
59%TICKETS41%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.5
MEM Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: +11.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.5
MEM Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: +11.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -9.6
MEM
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
UTAH
MEM
UTAH
ML
57% 4-3
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
ATS
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
TTL
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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