Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bulls @ Raptors CHI @ TOR

CHICAGO

BULLSCHI

0-1  |  Road

92
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

1-0  |  Home

135
Key Game
Jaylin Sellers
KEY GAME

Jaylin Sellers

#22 | Guard
@
Alijah Martin
KEY GAME

Alijah Martin

#55 | Guard
Player
Jaylin Sellers None-None
Alijah Martin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
19%
📊
RAPTORS
81%
BULLS 22% Book Odds: +360
RAPTORS 83% Book Odds: -470
Book Implied: 21.70% / 82.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.4
Projected
Book Total
237.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.1 (Under)
Over 237.5 43%
Under 237.5 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
-10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Toronto)
BullsCHI (+10.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (-10.5)
Toronto Raptors (-10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

11.5%

Raptors Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

CHI By 1-7 points

8.0%

CHI By 8-14 points

2.2%

TOR By 1-7 points

20.1%

TOR By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
111.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 113.50
123.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 124
Simulated Score
113
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 113.50
122
TORONTO
Book Implied: 124
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Raptors Win
81% Win Prob
A
Sim Raptors Win
74% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raptors (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Sim Bulls (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 234.4
C
Sim u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 CHI @ TOR 92 - 135
Mar 18, 2026 TOR @ CHI 139 - 109
Feb 19, 2026 TOR @ CHI 110 - 101
Feb 5, 2026 CHI @ TOR 107 - 123
Apr 1, 2025 TOR @ CHI 118 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +43.6% more
Toronto: 5.9 vs Chicago: 4.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
Toronto: 33.8% vs Chicago: 28.1%
Turnovers (L5) +26.1% more
Chicago: 15.6 vs Toronto: 11.5
Rebounding (L5) +10.9% more
Chicago: 44.6 vs Toronto: 39.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 111.2 92
TOR Score 123.2 135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 28.1 32.0 / 11.0
Assists 26.5 / 27.8 31.0 / 16.0
Blocks 5.9 / 4.1 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 46.8 45.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 75.5 80.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 39.7 / 44.6 51.0 / 57.0
Steals 10.2 / 10.8 15.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 15.9 11.0 / 27.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +275 / -345 → +360 / -470 ↑
7%TICKETS93%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 235.5 → 237.5 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -16.3 ATS +/-: -8.1
TOR Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -16.3 ATS +/-: -8.1
TOR Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: +3.2
TOR
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CHI
TOR
CHI
ML
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
ATS
43% 3-4
17% 1-5-1
14% 1-6
33% 2-4-1
TTL
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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