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MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

1-0  |  Road

131
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 7:30 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

0-1  |  Home

106
Key Game
Bones Hyland
KEY GAME

Bones Hyland

#8 | Guard
@
Ryan Conwell
KEY GAME

Ryan Conwell

#4 | Guard
Player
Bones Hyland None-None
Ryan Conwell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
46%
📊
HEAT
54%
TIMBERWOLVES 51% Book Odds: -102
HEAT 54% Book Odds: -118
Book Implied: 50.50% / 54.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
240.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.5 (Under)
Over 240.5 37%
Under 240.5 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (+1.5) 0 HeatMIA (-1.5)
Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

54.0%

Heat Cover

46.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

24.3%

MIN By 8-14 points

13.7%

MIA By 1-7 points

26.2%

MIA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
116.5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 119.50
117.5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 121
Simulated Score
122
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 119.50
120
MIAMI
Book Implied: 121
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Heat Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
56% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Timberwolves (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 234.0
B
Sim o240.5 Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 MIN @ MIA 131 - 106
Jan 6, 2026 MIA @ MIN 94 - 122
Jan 3, 2026 MIN @ MIA 125 - 115
Mar 7, 2025 MIN @ MIA 106 - 104
Nov 10, 2024 MIA @ MIN 95 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +56.7% more
Miami: 4.8 vs Minnesota: 3.1
Assists (L5) +52.7% more
Miami: 33.1 vs Minnesota: 21.7
Field Goal % (L5) +11.3%
Miami: 51.8% vs Minnesota: 40.6%
Rebounding (L5) +9.0% more
Miami: 44.2 vs Minnesota: 40.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 116.5 131
MIA Score 117.5 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.2 / 33.1 24.0 / 42.0
Assists 33.1 / 21.7 27.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.8 / 3.1 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.8 / 40.6 48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 79.5 77.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 44.2 / 40.5 34.0 / 52.0
Steals 6.1 / 7.0 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 12.1 19.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → -102 / -118 ↓
33%TICKETS67%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
56%TICKETS44%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 242.5 → 240.5 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +10.6
MIA
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +10.6
MIA
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.8
MIA
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MIN
MIA
MIN
ML
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
ATS
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
38% 3-5
TTL
43% 3-4
38% 3-5
29% 2-5
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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