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MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

0-1  |  Road

116
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

1-0  |  Home

128
Key Game
Kasparas Jakucionis
KEY GAME

Kasparas Jakucionis

#25 | Guard
@
Tre Johnson
KEY GAME

Tre Johnson

#12 | Guard
Player
Kasparas Jakucionis None-None
Tre Johnson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
58%
📊
WIZARDS
42%
▲ Edge: +18.20% (MIL)
BUCKS 40% Book Odds: +148
WIZARDS 62% Book Odds: -162
Book Implied: 40.30% / 61.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.5
Projected
Book Total
238.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 238.5 57%
Under 238.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
+4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Milwaukee)
BucksMIL (+4) 0 WizardsWSH (-4)
Milwaukee Bucks (+4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucks Cover

74.2%

Wizards Cover

25.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-7 points

26.6%

MIL By 8-14 points

24.8%

WSH By 1-7 points

16.1%

WSH By 8-14 points

6.3%

AI Model Projected Score
124
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 117.20
117.5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 121.20
Simulated Score
116
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 117.20
122
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 121.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bucks Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Wizards Win
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bucks (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.5
A
Sim Wizards (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o238.5 Win
Proj Total: 241.5
C
Sim u238.5 Loss
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 MIL @ WSH 116 - 128
Jan 29, 2026 MIL @ WSH 99 - 109
Dec 31, 2025 WSH @ MIL 114 - 113
Dec 1, 2025 MIL @ WSH 126 - 129
Oct 22, 2025 WSH @ MIL 120 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +15.3% more
Milwaukee: 4.3 vs Washington: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +14.1% more
Milwaukee: 16.6 vs Washington: 14.3
Rebounding (L5) +14.0% more
Milwaukee: 41.9 vs Washington: 36.0
Turnovers (L5) +13.5% more
Milwaukee: 17.9 vs Washington: 15.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 124.0 116
WSH Score 117.5 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 37.5 21.0 / 37.0
Assists 26.0 / 28.1 28.0 / 28.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.3 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 47.1 52.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 76.8 / 70.3 78.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 41.9 44.0 / 41.0
Steals 10.1 / 6.7 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 17.9 13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +164 / -198 → +148 / -162 ↓
11%TICKETS89%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +4 / -4 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 238.5 → 238.5
56%TICKETS44%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -13.0 ATS +/-: -6.1
WSH Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +5.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -13.0 ATS +/-: -6.1
WSH Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +5.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: -0.1
WSH
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -15.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIL
WSH
MIL
ML
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
ATS
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
TTL
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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