Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hawks @ Magic ATL @ ORL

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

1-0  |  Road

132
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Kia Center
View Odds Details →

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

0-1  |  Home

125
Key Game
Kingston Flemings
KEY GAME

Kingston Flemings

#4 | Guard
@
Jase Richardson
KEY GAME

Jase Richardson

#11 | Guard
Player
Kingston Flemings None-None
Jase Richardson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
43%
📊
MAGIC
57%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (ORL)
HAWKS 47% Book Odds: +115
MAGIC 56% Book Odds: -125
Book Implied: 46.50% / 55.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
233.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +12.5 (Under)
Over 233.5 23%
Under 233.5 77%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
ORLANDO
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Orlando)
HawksATL (+2.5) 0 MagicORL (-2.5)
Orlando Magic (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

39.7%

Magic Cover

60.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)

ATL By 1-7 points

22.2%

ATL By 8-14 points

11.3%

ORL By 1-7 points

27.1%

ORL By 8-14 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
109.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 115.50
111.8
ORLANDO
Book Implied: 118
Simulated Score
115
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 115.50
118
ORLANDO
Book Implied: 118
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Magic Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Magic Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Magic (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.6
D
Sim Magic (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u233.5 Loss
Proj Total: 221.0
A
Sim u233.5 Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 ATL @ ORL 132 - 125
Apr 1, 2026 ATL @ ORL 130 - 101
Mar 16, 2026 ORL @ ATL 112 - 124
Nov 4, 2025 ORL @ ATL 112 - 127
Oct 24, 2025 ATL @ ORL 111 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.4% more
Orlando: 9.5 vs Atlanta: 6.9
Blocks (L5) +37.8% more
Orlando: 5.9 vs Atlanta: 4.3
Turnovers (L5) +22.6% more
Orlando: 16.5 vs Atlanta: 13.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Orlando: 32.5% vs Atlanta: 30.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 109.2 132
ORL Score 111.8 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 30.0 32.0 / 39.0
Assists 19.5 / 22.8 30.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.9 / 4.3 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.1 / 42.5 48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 71.9 77.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 35.9 39.0 / 42.0
Steals 9.5 / 6.9 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 15.6 20.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130 → +115 / -125 ↓
24%TICKETS76%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +2.5 / -2.5
57%TICKETS43%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 233.5 → 233.5
69%TICKETS31%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -0.9
ORL
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -6.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -0.9
ORL
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -6.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
ORL
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
ATL
ORL
ATL
ML
29% 2-5
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
50% 4-4
ATS
43% 3-4
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
TTL
43% 3-4
25% 2-6
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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