Home / NHL Projections NHL / Lightning @ Golden Knights TB @ VGK

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

7-2-0  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 10:30 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

8-3-0  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Carter Hart
GOALTENDER

Carter Hart

#79 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 2.00 0.941 --
Carter Hart None-None 6.02 0.714 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 6.02
0.941 Ldr Save % 0.714
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
44%
📊
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
56%
▲ Edge: +3.40% (VGK)
LIGHTNING 52% Book Odds: -110
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 52.40% / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5 50%
Under 6.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
VEGAS
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Vegas)
LightningTB (+1.5) 0 Golden KnightsVGK (-1.5)
Vegas Golden Knights (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

21.2%

Golden Knights Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)

TB By 1 goal

8.6%

TB By 2-3 goals

5.5%

VGK By 1 goal

18.9%

VGK By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
3.8
VEGAS
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
2
VEGAS
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Knights Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Knights (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 TB @ VGK 6 - 2
Nov 6, 2025 TB @ VGK 6 - 3
Oct 26, 2025 VGK @ TB 1 - 2
Mar 23, 2025 TB @ VGK 2 - 4
Oct 17, 2024 VGK @ TB 3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +39.9% more
Vegas: 5.0 vs Tampa Bay: 3.6
Power Play % (L5) +11.5%
Vegas: 49.5% vs Tampa Bay: 38.0%
Faceoff % (L5) +3.6%
Vegas: 53.2% vs Tampa Bay: 49.6%
Shots on Goal (L5) +17.9% more
Tampa Bay: 32.1 vs Vegas: 26.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 2.2 6
VGK Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.5 / 14.6 17.0 / 13.0
Faceoff % 53.2 / 49.6 43.1 / 56.9
Hits 21.0 / 22.8 24.0 / 13.0
Power Play % 49.5 / 38.0 0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 26.4 / 32.1 34.0 / 21.0
Takeaways 5.0 / 3.6 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → -110 / -110
33%TICKETS67%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
25%TICKETS75%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 6.5 ↑
86%TICKETS14%
96%MONEY4%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
TB
VGK
TB
ML
72% 13-5
56% 9-7
56% 10-8
81% 13-3
ATS
50% 9-9
56% 9-7
67% 12-6
56% 9-7
TTL
39% 7-11
47% 7-8-1
50% 9-9
47% 7-8-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Vasilevskiy Eyes Long-Term Stay with Lightning, Aims for Lucrati…
yardbarker 5 minutes ago
Vasilevskiy Hopeful Kucherov and Lightning Can Find 'Perfect Gol…
theathleticuk 5 hours, 30 minutes ago
Sabres Face Golden Knights, Eichel in Pivotal Stretch
lufkindailynews 17 hours, 55 minutes ago
Blackhawks' Skid Hits Five Games; Hayes and Felcman Shine in Roc…
yahoo 1 day, 23 hours ago
Connelly's Late Heroics Lift Golden Knights Past Red Wings
yahoo 2 days, 11 hours ago