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BOSTON

BRUINSBOS

7-2-1  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

5-3-1  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Jeremy Swayman
GOALTENDER

Jeremy Swayman

#1 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jeremy Swayman None-None 2.82 0.880 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 1.89 0.900 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.82 GAA Ldr 1.89
0.880 Save % Ldr 0.900
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
48%
📊
STARS
52%
▲ Edge: +6.90% (BOS)
BRUINS 41% Book Odds: +146
STARS 62% Book Odds: -163
Book Implied: 40.70% / 62%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
Over 5.5 49%
Under 5.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
BOSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
BruinsBOS (+1.5) 0 StarsDAL (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

77.3%

Stars Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BOS +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1 goal

9.2%

BOS By 2-3 goals

6.1%

DAL By 1 goal

19.1%

DAL By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2
3.5
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2
2
DALLAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stars Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bruins (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Bruins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 BOS @ DAL 2 - 3
Mar 31, 2026 DAL @ BOS 3 - 6
Jan 20, 2026 BOS @ DAL 2 - 6
Nov 14, 2024 BOS @ DAL 2 - 7
Oct 24, 2024 DAL @ BOS 5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +4.8%
Dallas: 26.4% vs Boston: 21.6%
Faceoff % (L5) +4.1%
Dallas: 60.0% vs Boston: 55.9%
Blocked Shots (L5) +10.8% more
Boston: 17.3 vs Dallas: 15.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 2.0 2
DAL Score 3.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.4 / 17.3 13.0 / 22.0
Faceoff % 60.0 / 55.9 49.1 / 50.9
Hits 23.0 / 22.4 18.0 / 23.0
Power Play % 26.4 / 21.6 33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 26.5 / 25.8 25.0 / 20.0
Takeaways 4.3 / 4.0 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +142 / -170 → +146 / -163 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
84%TICKETS16%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
84%TICKETS16%
88%MONEY12%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
BOS
DAL
BOS
ML
59% 10-7
76% 13-4
47% 8-9
41% 7-10
ATS
35% 6-11
59% 10-7
53% 9-8
53% 9-8
TTL
59% 10-7
53% 9-8
59% 10-7
47% 8-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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