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ANAHEIM

DUCKSANA

4-5-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 7:00 PM ET
UBS Arena
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

5-3-1  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Lukas Dostal
GOALTENDER

Lukas Dostal

#1 | Goaltender
@
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Lukas Dostal None-None 3.14 0.880 --
Ilya Sorokin None-None 2.00 0.882 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.14 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.880 Save % Ldr 0.882
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
43%
📊
ISLANDERS
57%
DUCKS 45% Book Odds: +124
ISLANDERS 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5 51%
Under 5.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New York)
DucksANA (+1.5) 0 IslandersNYI (-1.5)
New York Islanders (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ducks Cover

21.2%

Islanders Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)

ANA By 1 goal

8.6%

ANA By 2-3 goals

5.5%

NYI By 1 goal

18.9%

NYI By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
ANAHEIM
Book Implied: 2
3.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
2
ANAHEIM
Book Implied: 2
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Islanders Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Islanders Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Islanders (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Ducks (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 ANA @ NYI 2 - 3
Mar 4, 2026 NYI @ ANA 1 - 5
Dec 11, 2025 ANA @ NYI 2 - 5
Mar 9, 2025 NYI @ ANA 1 - 4
Oct 29, 2024 ANA @ NYI 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +14.0% more
New York: 3.5 vs Anaheim: 3.1
Faceoff % (L5) +11.0%
New York: 53.4% vs Anaheim: 42.4%
Blocked Shots (L5) +25.2% more
Anaheim: 14.4 vs New York: 10.7
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.9% more
Anaheim: 27.1 vs New York: 23.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ANA Score 2.2 2
NYI Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 10.7 / 14.4 14.0 / 24.0
Faceoff % 53.4 / 42.4 59.6 / 40.4
Hits 24.7 / 26.3 19.0 / 22.0
Power Play % 8.7 / 11.4 25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 23.8 / 27.1 25.0 / 17.0
Takeaways 3.5 / 3.1 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +140 / -166 → +124 / -148 ↓
19%TICKETS81%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
72%TICKETS28%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 5.5 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
91%MONEY9%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
ANA
NYI
ANA
ML
69% 11-5
41% 7-10
69% 11-5
47% 8-9
ATS
44% 7-9
24% 4-13
50% 8-8
53% 9-8
TTL
20% 3-12-1
38% 6-10-1
67% 10-5-1
31% 5-11-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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