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SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

5-4-1  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Bell Centre
View Odds Details →

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

4-3-2  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Alex Nedeljkovic
GOALTENDER

Alex Nedeljkovic

#33 | Goaltender
@
Jakub Dobes
GOALTENDER

Jakub Dobes

#75 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Alex Nedeljkovic None-None 2.89 0.912 --
Jakub Dobes None-None 3.87 0.867 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.89 Ldr GAA 3.87
0.912 Ldr Save % 0.867
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SHARKS
26%
📊
CANADIENS
74%
▲ Edge: +6.30% (MTL)
SHARKS 35% Book Odds: +190
CANADIENS 68% Book Odds: -214
Book Implied: 34.50% / 68.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5 49%
Under 6.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
SAN JOSE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
SharksSJ (+1.5) 0 CanadiensMTL (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sharks Cover

77.3%

Canadiens Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around SJ +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJ)

SJ By 1 goal

9.2%

SJ By 2-3 goals

6.1%

MTL By 1 goal

19.1%

MTL By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.50
4
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.50
3
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Canadiens Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Canadiens Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sharks (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Sharks (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 SJ @ MTL 4 - 3
Mar 14, 2026 SJ @ MTL 4 - 2
Mar 3, 2026 MTL @ SJ 5 - 7
Feb 27, 2025 SJ @ MTL 3 - 4
Feb 4, 2025 MTL @ SJ 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +9.2%
Montreal: 23.4% vs San Jose: 14.3%
Faceoff % (L5) +5.0%
Montreal: 54.0% vs San Jose: 49.0%
Takeaways (L5) +28.9% more
San Jose: 4.8 vs Montreal: 3.4
Hits (L5) +8.0% more
San Jose: 21.1 vs Montreal: 19.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJ Score 2.5 4
MTL Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.7 / 12.6 8.0 / 21.0
Faceoff % 54.0 / 49.0 48.4 / 51.6
Hits 19.4 / 21.1 15.0 / 22.0
Power Play % 23.4 / 14.3 0.0 / 66.7
Shots on Goal 31.9 / 31.0 34.0 / 30.0
Takeaways 3.4 / 4.8 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +170 / -205 → +190 / -214 ↑
13%TICKETS87%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
55%TICKETS45%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
79%TICKETS21%
88%MONEY12%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
SJ
MTL
SJ
ML
71% 12-5
63% 12-7
41% 7-10
47% 9-10
ATS
41% 7-10
47% 9-10
82% 14-3
42% 8-11
TTL
35% 6-11
42% 8-11
47% 8-9
53% 10-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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