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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

1-0  |  Road

116
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 9:30 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

0-1  |  Home

104
Key Game
Bennett Stirtz
KEY GAME

Bennett Stirtz

#14 | Guard
@
Ja'Kobi Gillespie
KEY GAME

Ja'Kobi Gillespie

#17 | Guard
Player
Bennett Stirtz None-None
Ja'Kobi Gillespie None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
48%
📊
SPURS
52%
▲ Edge: +2% (SA)
THUNDER 52% Book Odds: -110
SPURS 50% Book Odds: +100
Book Implied: 52.40% / 50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.5
Projected
Book Total
229.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +11.0 (Under)
Over 229.5 25%
Under 229.5 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Antonio)
ThunderOKC (-1.5) 0 SpursSA (+1.5)
San Antonio Spurs (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

48.0%

Spurs Cover

52.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

OKC By 1-7 points

24.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

14.5%

SA By 1-7 points

25.8%

SA By 8-14 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Implied: 115.50
109.5
SAN ANTONIO
Book Implied: 114
Simulated Score
114
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Implied: 115.50
117
SAN ANTONIO
Book Implied: 114
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spurs Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Spurs Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spurs (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.5
D
Sim Spurs (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u229.5 Win
Proj Total: 218.5
A
Sim o229.5 Loss
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 OKC @ SA 116 - 104
May 30, 2026 SA @ OKC 111 - 103
May 28, 2026 OKC @ SA 91 - 118
May 26, 2026 SA @ OKC 114 - 127
May 24, 2026 OKC @ SA 82 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +38.4% more
San Antonio: 5.9 vs Oklahoma City: 4.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
San Antonio: 35.0% vs Oklahoma City: 33.2%
Steals (L5) +20.4% more
Oklahoma City: 9.3 vs San Antonio: 7.4
Turnovers (L5) +13.4% more
Oklahoma City: 14.4 vs San Antonio: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 109.0 116
SA Score 109.5 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 33.2 27.0 / 45.0
Assists 22.0 / 24.2 21.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.9 / 4.3 11.0 / 10.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 43.2 39.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 84.2 88.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 44.2 / 41.7 45.0 / 47.0
Steals 7.4 / 9.3 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 14.4 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → -110 / +100 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 230.5 → 229.5 ↓
64%TICKETS36%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -6.7
SA
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -6.7
SA
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -13.2
SA
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
OKC
SA
OKC
ML
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
ATS
50% 3-3
17% 1-5
33% 2-4
33% 2-4
TTL
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
33% 2-4
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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