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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

0-1  |  Road

113
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 3:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

1-0  |  Home

121
Key Game
Hugo Gonzalez
KEY GAME

Hugo Gonzalez

#28 | Guard
@
Daniss Jenkins
KEY GAME

Daniss Jenkins

#24 | Guard
Player
Hugo Gonzalez None-None
Daniss Jenkins None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
47%
📊
PISTONS
53%
▲ Edge: +5.70% (DET)
CELTICS 54% Book Odds: -115
PISTONS 48% Book Odds: +110
Book Implied: 53.50% / 47.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.4
Projected
Book Total
220.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.1 (Under)
Over 220.5 44%
Under 220.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Detroit)
CelticsBOS (-1.5) 0 PistonsDET (+1.5)
Detroit Pistons (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

46.0%

Pistons Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

BOS By 1-7 points

24.3%

BOS By 8-14 points

13.7%

DET By 1-7 points

26.2%

DET By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
108.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 111
109.2
DETROIT
Book Implied: 109.50
Simulated Score
110
BOSTON
Book Implied: 111
112
DETROIT
Book Implied: 109.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pistons Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Pistons Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pistons (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim Pistons (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u220.5 Loss
Proj Total: 217.4
C
Sim o220.5 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 BOS @ DET 113 - 121
Jan 19, 2026 BOS @ DET 103 - 104
Dec 15, 2025 DET @ BOS 112 - 105
Nov 26, 2025 DET @ BOS 114 - 117
Oct 26, 2025 BOS @ DET 113 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +60.7% more
Detroit: 8.8 vs Boston: 5.5
Turnovers (L5) +53.7% more
Detroit: 16.1 vs Boston: 10.4
Blocks (L5) +23.3% more
Detroit: 5.8 vs Boston: 4.7
Turnovers (L5) +10.7% more
Detroit: 14.9 vs Boston: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 108.2 113
DET Score 109.2 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 31.4 38.0 / 40.0
Assists 23.5 / 21.7 27.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.8 / 4.7 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 42.2 45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 72.4 88.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 41.1 / 46.2 49.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.8 / 5.5 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 10.4 17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → -115 / +110 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
52%TICKETS48%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 221.5 → 220.5 ↓
72%TICKETS28%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 9.5 ATS +/-: +0.5
DET
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.5 ATS +/-: +0.5
DET Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: +1.7
DET
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -11.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BOS
DET
BOS
ML
100% 6-0
83% 5-1
100% 6-0
100% 6-0
ATS
83% 5-1
60% 3-2-1
100% 6-0
60% 3-2-1
TTL
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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